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Table 3 CVD Outcomes

From: An evaluation of the impact of aggressive hypertension, diabetes and smoking cessation management on CVD outcomes at the population level: a dynamic simulation analysis

Outcomes 2010 2020 2030 2040 % change 2010–2040
Base-case
 CVD Events 33,292 (33,292-33,292) 52,171 (51,982-52,360) 70,102 (69,542-70,662) 86,592 (85,588-87,594) 160% (157–163%)
 CVD Deaths 5329 (5329-5329) 7046 (7043-7049) 10,551 (10,528-10,574) 14,714 (14,631-14,797) 176% (174–177.6%)
 Post-CVD Population 112,606 (112,606-112,606) 138,507 (138,366-138,647) 173,896 (173,137-174,654) 204,689 (202,857-206,522) 81.7% (80–83.4%)
 Age-Adjusted Incidence Rate 0.88% (0.88–0.88%) 1.293% (1.289–1.298%) 1.60% (1.59–1.61%) 1.84% (1.82–1.86%) 109% (106–111%)
Diabetes Management Scenario
 CVD Events 33,292 (33,292-33,292) 52,171 (51,982-52,360) 63,857 (63,391-64,322) 75,647 (74,819-76,475) 127% (124–129%)
 CVD Deaths 5329 (5329-5329) 7046 (7043-7049) 10,331 (10,311-10,352) 13,875 (13,804-13,946) 160% (159–161%)
 Post-CVD Population 112,606 (112,606-112,606) 138,507 (138,366-138,647) 168,088 (167,410-168,766) 186,460 (184,923-187,997) 65.5% (64–66.9%)
 Age-Adjusted Incidence Rate 0.88% (0.88–0.88%) 1.293% (1.289–1.298%) 1.46% (1.45–1.47%) 1.61% (1.59–1.62%) 82.9% (80.6–84%)
Hypertension Management Scenario  
 CVD Events 33,292 (33,292-33,292) 52,171 (51,982-52,360) 66,500 (65,979-67,021) 79,812 (78,912-80,712) 139.7% (137–142%)
 CVD Deaths 5329 (5329-5329) 7046 (7043-7049) 10,383 (10,361-10,405) 14,130 (14,053-14,206) 165% (163.7–166%)
 Post-CVD Population 112,606 (112,606-112,606) 138,507 (138,366-138,647) 170,720 (169,991-171,449) 194,710 (193,019-196,401) 71.9% (71.4–74%)
 Age-Adjusted Incidence Rate 0.88% (0.88–0.88%) 1.293% (1.289–1.298%) 1.52% (1.51–1.53%) 1.70% (1.68–1.72%) 93% (90–95%)
Smoking Cessation Scenario
 CVD Events 33,292 (33,292-33,292) 52,171 (51,982-52,360) 67,036 (66,505-67,567) 82,973 (82,013-83,933) 149% (146–152%)
 CVD Deaths 5329 (5329-5329) 7046 (7043-7049) 10,413 (10,391-10,434) 14,322 (14,243-14,400) 168% (167–170%)
 Post-CVD Population 112,606 (112,606-112,606) 138,507 (138,366-138,647) 170,178 (169,451-170,905) 196,800 (195,048-198,551) 74.7% (73–76%)
 Age-Adjusted Incidence Rate 0.88% (0.88–0.88%) 1.293% (1.289–1.298%) 1.536% (1.524–1.548%) 1.768% (1.748–1.788%) 100.9% (98–103%)
Diabetes/Hypertension/Smoking Scenario
 CVD Events 33,292 (33,292-33,292) 52,171 (51,982-52,360) 57,347 (56,947-57,747) 65,584 (64,897-66,271) 96.9% (94.9–99%)
 CVD Deaths 5329 (5329-5329) 7046 (7043-7049) 10,029 (10,010-10,048) 12,918 (12,856-12,979) 142% (141–143.5%)
 Post-CVD Population 112,606 (112,606-112,606) 138,507 (138,366-138,647) 161,321 (160,702-161,939) 169,112 (167,789-170,434) 50% (49–51.3%)
 Age-Adjusted Incidence Rate 0.88% (0.88–0.88%) 1.293% (1.289–1.298%) 1.313% (1.304–1.322%) 1.396% (1.381–1.410%) 58.6% (56%-60)