Parameters | Values | Unit | Sources |
---|---|---|---|
Diabetes sub model | |||
 Baseline incidence rate | 0.0328368 | Dimensionless/year | Calibration |
 Baseline progression rate [managed] | 0.0134 | Dimensionless/year | [49] |
 Baseline progression rate [unmanaged] | 0.0556 | Dimensionless/year | |
 Baseline pre-diabetes regression rate | 0.193 | Dimensionless/year | [50] |
 Uptake rate of management | 0.05 | Dimensionless/year | Calibration |
Hypertension sub-model | |||
 Baseline incidence rate | 0.0237906 | Dimensionless/year | Calibration |
 Baseline progression rate [unmanaged] |  |  | [51] |
  Female | 0.06975 | Dimensionless/year | |
  Male | 0.080125 | Dimensionless/year | |
 Effect of management on progression | 0.33 | Dimensionless/year | [52] |
 Baseline prehypertension regression rate | 0.25 | Dimensionless/year | [53] |
 Uptake rate of management | 0.035 | Dimensionless/year | Calibration |
Smoking sub-model | |||
 Baseline smoking initiation rate | 0.0082388 | Dimensionless/year | Calibration |
 Baseline smoking relapse rate | 0.1 | Dimensionless/year | [56] |
 Baseline smoking cessation rate | 0.162 | Dimensionless/year | [55] |
Demographics | |||
 Birth rate | Time series | Dimensionless/year | [47] |
 Net migration | Time series | Dimensionless/year | Calibration |
 Age specific mortality rate | Time series | Dimensionless/year | [47] |
CVD Model | |||
 Smoking risk |  |  | [58] |
  Female | 0.5419 | Dimensionless | |
  Male | 0.5224 | Dimensionless | |
 Age risk |  |  | |
  Female | 0.0699 | Dimensionless | |
  Male | 0.0488 | Dimensionless | |
 Diabetes risk |  |  | |
  Female | 0.5604 | Dimensionless | |
  Male | 0.3492 | Dimensionless | |
 Hypertension risk |  |  | |
  Female | 0.0161 | Dimensionless | |
  Male | 0.0152 | Dimensionless | |
 CVD beta |  |  | Calibration |
  Normal | −11.968 | Dimensionless | |
  Diabetes only | −5.53323 | Dimensionless | |
  Hypertension only | −6.91289 | Dimensionless | |
  Smoking only | −5.33926 | Dimensionless | |
  Diabetes and hypertension | −6.74229 | Dimensionless | |
  Diabetes and smoking | −8.09581 | Dimensionless | |
  Hypertension smoking | −7.10026 | Dimensionless | |
  Diabetes and hypertension and smoking | −8.18119 | Dimensionless | |
 Relative risk of CVD event Diabetes Management | 0.8 | Dimensionless | [61] |
 Relative risk of CVD event Hypertension Management | 0.5 | Dimensionless | [62] |
 Relative risk of CVD event Smoking Cessation | 0.5 | Dimensionless | Calibrated |
 CVD event death rate | 0.2 | Dimensionless | Calibrated |
 Relative risk of death CVD | 1.6 | Dimensionless | [63] |
 Effect of treatment on mortality | 0.13 | Dimensionless | [67] |
 Fraction of post-CVD population receiving treatment of risk factors | 1 | Dimensionless | Expert opinion |