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Table 2 Model Parameters

From: An evaluation of the impact of aggressive hypertension, diabetes and smoking cessation management on CVD outcomes at the population level: a dynamic simulation analysis

Parameters

Values

Unit

Sources

Diabetes sub model

 Baseline incidence rate

0.0328368

Dimensionless/year

Calibration

 Baseline progression rate [managed]

0.0134

Dimensionless/year

[49]

 Baseline progression rate [unmanaged]

0.0556

Dimensionless/year

 Baseline pre-diabetes regression rate

0.193

Dimensionless/year

[50]

 Uptake rate of management

0.05

Dimensionless/year

Calibration

Hypertension sub-model

 Baseline incidence rate

0.0237906

Dimensionless/year

Calibration

 Baseline progression rate [unmanaged]

  

[51]

  Female

0.06975

Dimensionless/year

  Male

0.080125

Dimensionless/year

 Effect of management on progression

0.33

Dimensionless/year

[52]

 Baseline prehypertension regression rate

0.25

Dimensionless/year

[53]

 Uptake rate of management

0.035

Dimensionless/year

Calibration

Smoking sub-model

 Baseline smoking initiation rate

0.0082388

Dimensionless/year

Calibration

 Baseline smoking relapse rate

0.1

Dimensionless/year

[56]

 Baseline smoking cessation rate

0.162

Dimensionless/year

[55]

Demographics

 Birth rate

Time series

Dimensionless/year

[47]

 Net migration

Time series

Dimensionless/year

Calibration

 Age specific mortality rate

Time series

Dimensionless/year

[47]

CVD Model

 Smoking risk

  

[58]

  Female

0.5419

Dimensionless

  Male

0.5224

Dimensionless

 Age risk

  

  Female

0.0699

Dimensionless

  Male

0.0488

Dimensionless

 Diabetes risk

  

  Female

0.5604

Dimensionless

  Male

0.3492

Dimensionless

 Hypertension risk

  

  Female

0.0161

Dimensionless

  Male

0.0152

Dimensionless

 CVD beta

  

Calibration

  Normal

−11.968

Dimensionless

  Diabetes only

−5.53323

Dimensionless

  Hypertension only

−6.91289

Dimensionless

  Smoking only

−5.33926

Dimensionless

  Diabetes and hypertension

−6.74229

Dimensionless

  Diabetes and smoking

−8.09581

Dimensionless

  Hypertension smoking

−7.10026

Dimensionless

  Diabetes and hypertension and smoking

−8.18119

Dimensionless

 Relative risk of CVD event Diabetes Management

0.8

Dimensionless

[61]

 Relative risk of CVD event Hypertension Management

0.5

Dimensionless

[62]

 Relative risk of CVD event Smoking Cessation

0.5

Dimensionless

Calibrated

 CVD event death rate

0.2

Dimensionless

Calibrated

 Relative risk of death CVD

1.6

Dimensionless

[63]

 Effect of treatment on mortality

0.13

Dimensionless

[67]

 Fraction of post-CVD population receiving treatment of risk factors

1

Dimensionless

Expert opinion