Skip to main content

Table 2 Model Parameters

From: An evaluation of the impact of aggressive hypertension, diabetes and smoking cessation management on CVD outcomes at the population level: a dynamic simulation analysis

Parameters Values Unit Sources
Diabetes sub model
 Baseline incidence rate 0.0328368 Dimensionless/year Calibration
 Baseline progression rate [managed] 0.0134 Dimensionless/year [49]
 Baseline progression rate [unmanaged] 0.0556 Dimensionless/year
 Baseline pre-diabetes regression rate 0.193 Dimensionless/year [50]
 Uptake rate of management 0.05 Dimensionless/year Calibration
Hypertension sub-model
 Baseline incidence rate 0.0237906 Dimensionless/year Calibration
 Baseline progression rate [unmanaged]    [51]
  Female 0.06975 Dimensionless/year
  Male 0.080125 Dimensionless/year
 Effect of management on progression 0.33 Dimensionless/year [52]
 Baseline prehypertension regression rate 0.25 Dimensionless/year [53]
 Uptake rate of management 0.035 Dimensionless/year Calibration
Smoking sub-model
 Baseline smoking initiation rate 0.0082388 Dimensionless/year Calibration
 Baseline smoking relapse rate 0.1 Dimensionless/year [56]
 Baseline smoking cessation rate 0.162 Dimensionless/year [55]
Demographics
 Birth rate Time series Dimensionless/year [47]
 Net migration Time series Dimensionless/year Calibration
 Age specific mortality rate Time series Dimensionless/year [47]
CVD Model
 Smoking risk    [58]
  Female 0.5419 Dimensionless
  Male 0.5224 Dimensionless
 Age risk   
  Female 0.0699 Dimensionless
  Male 0.0488 Dimensionless
 Diabetes risk   
  Female 0.5604 Dimensionless
  Male 0.3492 Dimensionless
 Hypertension risk   
  Female 0.0161 Dimensionless
  Male 0.0152 Dimensionless
 CVD beta    Calibration
  Normal −11.968 Dimensionless
  Diabetes only −5.53323 Dimensionless
  Hypertension only −6.91289 Dimensionless
  Smoking only −5.33926 Dimensionless
  Diabetes and hypertension −6.74229 Dimensionless
  Diabetes and smoking −8.09581 Dimensionless
  Hypertension smoking −7.10026 Dimensionless
  Diabetes and hypertension and smoking −8.18119 Dimensionless
 Relative risk of CVD event Diabetes Management 0.8 Dimensionless [61]
 Relative risk of CVD event Hypertension Management 0.5 Dimensionless [62]
 Relative risk of CVD event Smoking Cessation 0.5 Dimensionless Calibrated
 CVD event death rate 0.2 Dimensionless Calibrated
 Relative risk of death CVD 1.6 Dimensionless [63]
 Effect of treatment on mortality 0.13 Dimensionless [67]
 Fraction of post-CVD population receiving treatment of risk factors 1 Dimensionless Expert opinion