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Table 4 Performance measures (tenfold cross validation) for multi-state classification of statistical alarms in the PHE multi-system syndromic surveillance service

From: Machine learning to refine decision making within a syndromic surveillance service

  NB TAN TAN* Multinet Multinet*
Decision Alert MCC 0.398 0.377 0.393 0.387 0.435
Precision 0.308 0.420 0.355 0.846 0.490
Recall 0.516 0.339 0.435 0.177 0.387
Monitor MCC 0.497 0.581 0.552 0.486 0.459
Precision 0.354 0.570 0.450 0.524 0.259
Recall 0.708 0.597 0.684 0.455 0.829
Alert + Monitor (merging decisions/classifications from Table 3) MCC 0.587 0.643 0.617 0.521 0.507
Precision 0.422 0.641 0.510 0.595 0.303
Recall 0.826 0.649 0.754 0.462 0.867
  1. *Modified approach to account for data asymmetry i.e the predominance of ‘No-Action’ outcomes