Table 2 Parameter values (deterministic, in ranges) for modelling: Yearly probabilities for developing health conditions, and cohort starting ages

 40 to 49 years

0·35 to 1·14%

Derived from 3 years incidence data from IDS-TILDA by McCarron and colleagues [17]

 50 to 64 years

1·56 to 2·28%

As above

 65 years+

2·39 to 4·76%

As above

 40 to 49 years

0 to 1·11%

As above

 50 to 64 years

0·23 to 1·13%

As above

 65 years+

0·44 to 2·85%

As above

 40 to 49 years

0

As above

 50 to 64 years

0·07 to 0·91%

As above

 65 years+

0·44 to 2·82%

As above

 40 to 49 years

0 to 1·11%

As above

 50 to 64 years

0·03 to 1·32%

As above

 65 years +

0·07 to 1·83%

As above

 Proportion with obesity (all ages)

33·5%

As above

 50 to 64 years

0·24 to 1.28%

Derived from 3 years incidence data for all types of cancer from IDS-TILDA by McCarron and colleagues [17] applied to proportion of bowel cancer among all types of cancer from Cancer Research UK [30]

 65 years+

0·3 to 2·49%

As above

 50 to 64 years

0 to 0·16%

Derived from 3 years incidence data for all types of cancer from IDS-TILDA by McCarron and colleagues [17] applied to proportion of breast cancer among all types of cancer from Cancer Research UK [30]

 65 years +

0·04 to 0·19%

As above

 50 to 64 years

2·8 to 5·9%

Derived from 3 years incidence data from IDS-TILDA by McCarron and colleagues [17]

 65 years +

4·8 to 11·2%

As above

 50 to 64 years

0·07 to 0.55%

As above

 65 years +

0·08 to 1·11%

As above

 40 to 49 years

0·9 to 3%

As above

 50 to 64 years

1·32 to 3·2%

As above

 65 years +

1·04 to 4·09%

As above

 40 to 49 years

0 to 1.2%

As above

 50 to 64 years

0·14 to 1·1%

As above

 65 years +

0 to 0·15%

As above

 All ages

2 to 13·4%

Carvill [28] and Kerr and colleagues [29]

 Bowel cancer

60

Starting age of national screening programme

 Breast cancer

50

As above

 Osteoporosis

50

Age when prevalence strongly increases according to data from IDS-TILDA by McCarron and colleagues [17]