From: Estimation of cumulative number of post-treatment Lyme disease cases in the US, 2016 and 2020
Incidence Scenario | Failure Rate | 2016 | 2020 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deterministic | Simulation | Deterministic | Simulation | ||
A | |||||
 | 10% | 68,603 | 69,011 (51,796 - 89,312) | 81,713 | 81,509 (61,141 - 105,591) |
20% | 137,207 | 138,540 (114,456 - 164,408) | 163,426 | 163,705 (135,095 - 193,979) | |
B | |||||
 | 10% | 668,303 | 671,876 (511,989 - 866,523) | 792,572 | 790,411 (601,992 - 1,017,496) |
20% | 1,336,607 | 1,351,180 (1,126,160 - 1,608,309) | 1,585,145 | 1,590,259 (1,323,334 - 1,893,234) | |
C | |||||
 | 10% | 754,468 | 758,776 (575,431 - 980,601) | 969,020 | 967,822 (732,074 - 1,249,030) |
20% | 1,508,937 | 1,523,869 (1,268,634 - 1,809,416) | 1,938,041 | 1,944,189 (1,619,988 - 2,304,147) |