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Table 1 US prevalence of PTLD for 3 scenarios for incidence and 2 failure rates based on a deterministic estimation and simulation. For the simulation, results are presented as the median and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles as coverage intervals (CI) over 5000 runs

From: Estimation of cumulative number of post-treatment Lyme disease cases in the US, 2016 and 2020

Incidence Scenario

Failure Rate

2016

2020

Deterministic

Simulation

Deterministic

Simulation

A

 

10%

68,603

69,011

(51,796 - 89,312)

81,713

81,509

(61,141 - 105,591)

20%

137,207

138,540

(114,456 - 164,408)

163,426

163,705

(135,095 - 193,979)

B

 

10%

668,303

671,876

(511,989 - 866,523)

792,572

790,411

(601,992 - 1,017,496)

20%

1,336,607

1,351,180

(1,126,160 - 1,608,309)

1,585,145

1,590,259

(1,323,334 - 1,893,234)

C

 

10%

754,468

758,776

(575,431 - 980,601)

969,020

967,822

(732,074 - 1,249,030)

20%

1,508,937

1,523,869

(1,268,634 - 1,809,416)

1,938,041

1,944,189

(1,619,988 - 2,304,147)