Table 1 US prevalence of PTLD for 3 scenarios for incidence and 2 failure rates based on a deterministic estimation and simulation. For the simulation, results are presented as the median and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles as coverage intervals (CI) over 5000 runs
From: Estimation of cumulative number of post-treatment Lyme disease cases in the US, 2016 and 2020
| Incidence Scenario | Failure Rate | 2016 | 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deterministic | Simulation | Deterministic | Simulation | ||
| A | |||||
| 10% | 68,603 |
69,011 (51,796 - 89,312) | 81,713 |
81,509 (61,141 - 105,591) | |
| 20% | 137,207 |
138,540 (114,456 - 164,408) | 163,426 |
163,705 (135,095 - 193,979) | |
| B | |||||
| 10% | 668,303 |
671,876 (511,989 - 866,523) | 792,572 |
790,411 (601,992 - 1,017,496) | |
| 20% | 1,336,607 |
1,351,180 (1,126,160 - 1,608,309) | 1,585,145 |
1,590,259 (1,323,334 - 1,893,234) | |
| C | |||||
| 10% | 754,468 |
758,776 (575,431 - 980,601) | 969,020 |
967,822 (732,074 - 1,249,030) | |
| 20% | 1,508,937 |
1,523,869 (1,268,634 - 1,809,416) | 1,938,041 |
1,944,189 (1,619,988 - 2,304,147) | |