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Table 1 Annual transition (progression / regression) probabilities of the Markov model; Natural history inputs for HPV infection, CIN, and cervical cancer

From: Budget impact analysis of cervical cancer screening in Portugal: comparison of cytology and primary HPV screening strategies

  Model input References
Annual Progressio
Well to hrHPV infection 4.2% Kulasingam et al. (2011) [10]
Progression from hrHPV (12 types)
 to CIN1 8.1% Kulasingam et al. (2011) [10]; Insinga RP et al. (2007) [11]
 to CIN2 0.1% Khan MJ et al. (2005) [12]
 to CIN3 0.1%
Progression from hrHPV 16/18
 to CIN1 9.9% Insinga RP et al. (2007) [11]; Insinga RP et al. (2009) [13]
 to CIN2 0.6% Khan MJ et al. (2005) [12]
 to CIN3 1.5%
Progression from CIN1
 to CIN2 3.2% Weighted average: Kataja V et al. (1989) [14]; Holowaty P et al. (1999) [15]; Matsumoto K et al. (2006) [16]; Omori M et al. (2007) [17]; Guedes AC et al. (2010) [18]
 to CIN3 0.9%
 to CxCa 0.3%
Progression from CIN2
 to CIN3 4.2% Weighted average: Kataja V et al. (1989) [14]; Holowaty P et al. (1999) [15]; Matsumoto K et al. (2006) [16]; Omori M et al. (2007) [17]; Guedes AC et al. (2010) [18]
 to CxCa 1.8%
CIN3 to CxCa 3.4% Weighted average: Kataja V et al. (1989) [14]; Holowaty P et al. (1999) [15]; McCredie et al. (2008) [19]
Annual mortality rate for CxCa 0.6% SEER data. 5 year survival of 68% converted to annual mortality rate [20]
Annual Regression
Regression from hrHPV (12 types)
 with normal cytology to well 58.6% Bulkmans NJ et al. (2007) [21]
 with borderline/mild cytology to well 45.6%
Regression from hrHPV 16/18
 with normal cytology to well 43.8% Bulkmans NJ et al. (2007) [21]
 with borderline/mild cytology to well 21.8%
Regression from CIN1
 to well 21.2% Weighted average: Kataja V et al. (1989) [14]; Holowaty P et al. (1999) [15]; Matsumoto K et al. (2010) [22]
 to hrHPV 2.4%
Regression from CIN2
 to well 9.4% Weighted average: Kataja V et al. (1989) [14]; Meyskens FL Jr. et al. (1994) [23]; Holowaty P et al. (1999) [15]; Matsumoto K et al. (2006) [16]; Omori M et al. (2007) [17]; Castle PE et al. (2009) [24]; Guedes AC et al. (2010) [18]
 to CIN1 9.4%
Regression from CIN3
 to well 3.9% Weighted average: Kataja V et al. (1989) [14]; McCredie et al. (2008) [19]
 to CIN1 1.6%