Table 3 Posterior medians and 95% CrIs from the retrospective analysis of the ICU admissions with uninformative priors
From: Exploiting routinely collected severe case data to monitor and predict influenza outbreaks
| Â | Â | Season 2012/13 | Season 2013/14 | Season 2014/15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Parameter | Â | Posterior Me (CrI) | Posterior Me (CrI) | Posterior Me (CrI) |
Susceptibility | π | 0.546 (0.297 - 0.969) | 0.589 (0.32 - 0.977) | 0.531 (0.28 - 0.968) |
Initial number of infectious | I tot | 4106 (1441 - 11510) | 1357 (484 - 3312) | 9590 (3053 - 28493) |
Transmission rate | β | 0.611 (0.344 - 1.126) | 0.608 (0.367 - 1.118) | 0.596 (0.324 - 1.119) |
Over-dispersion | η | 3.204 (1.888 - 6.101) | 1.25 (1.011 - 2.096) | 17.925 (10.412 - 35.812) |
P of ICU given infection | p ICU (·104) | 0.841 (0.458 - 1.614) | 0.713 (0.419 - 1.338) | 1.749 (0.848- 3.745) |
Scaling factor for school closure | κ | 1.185 (0.971 - 1.434) | 0.965 (0.841 - 1.1) | 1.313 (0.866 - 1.824) |
Effective reproduction number | R n | 1.152 (1.093 - 1.211) | 1.235 (1.196 - 1.275) | 1.089 (0.997 - 1.195) |