Table 6 True and Expected Observed Risk Ratio of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) During an Outbreak of Zika Virus (ZIKV) Infection, by Hypothetical Increase in GBS Risk Among ZIKV Infected Individuals and by Specificity and Sensitivity of the GBS Case Definition Used for Surveillance
Hypothetical risk ratio | Specificity (%) | Incidence peripheral neuropathy | True GBS risk ratio a | Expected observed risk ratio b | PFP c (%) | Number of false positive GBS cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 100.0 | 3.3/10,000 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
1 | 91.7 | 54.5 | 454 | |||
1 | 88.9 | 62.4 | 631 | |||
1 | 80.6 | 75.2 | 1153 | |||
5 | 100.0 | 3.3/10,000 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 0.0 | 0 |
5 | 91.7 | 1.18 | 40.7 | 414 | ||
5 | 88.9 | 1.16 | 49.4 | 591 | ||
5 | 80.6 | 1.12 | 64.8 | 1113 | ||
10 | 100.0 | 3.3/10,000 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 0.0 | 0 |
10 | 91.7 | 1.33 | 29.2 | 364 | ||
10 | 88.9 | 1.30 | 37.9 | 540 | ||
10 | 80.6 | 1.23 | 54.6 | 1063 | ||
1 | 100.0 | 5.6/10,000 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.0 | 0 |
1 | 91.7 | 68.4 | 822 | |||
1 | 88.9 | 74.7 | 1122 | |||
1 | 80.6 | 84.1 | 2012 | |||
5 | 100.0 | 5.6/10,000 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 0.0 | 0 |
5 | 91.7 | 1.14 | 56.4 | 782 | ||
5 | 88.9 | 1.12 | 64.2 | 1082 | ||
5 | 80.6 | 1.08 | 76.5 | 1971 | ||
10 | 100.0 | 5.6/10,000 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 0.0 | 0 |
10 | 91.7 | 1.27 | 45.3 | 731 | ||
10 | 88.9 | 1.24 | 53.8 | 1032 | ||
10 | 80.6 | 1.17 | 68.5 | 1921 |