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Table 6 True and Expected Observed Risk Ratio of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) During an Outbreak of Zika Virus (ZIKV) Infection, by Hypothetical Increase in GBS Risk Among ZIKV Infected Individuals and by Specificity and Sensitivity of the GBS Case Definition Used for Surveillance

From: An assessment of public health surveillance of Zika virus infection and potentially associated outcomes in Latin America

Hypothetical risk ratio Specificity (%) Incidence peripheral neuropathy True GBS risk ratio a Expected observed risk ratio b PFP c (%) Number of false positive GBS cases
1 100.0 3.3/10,000 1.00 1.00 0.0 0
1 91.7     54.5 454
1 88.9     62.4 631
1 80.6     75.2 1153
5 100.0 3.3/10,000 1.29 1.29 0.0 0
5 91.7    1.18 40.7 414
5 88.9    1.16 49.4 591
5 80.6    1.12 64.8 1113
10 100.0 3.3/10,000 1.47 1.47 0.0 0
10 91.7    1.33 29.2 364
10 88.9    1.30 37.9 540
10 80.6    1.23 54.6 1063
1 100.0 5.6/10,000 1.00 1.00 0.0 0
1 91.7     68.4 822
1 88.9     74.7 1122
1 80.6     84.1 2012
5 100.0 5.6/10,000 1.29 1.29 0.0 0
5 91.7    1.14 56.4 782
5 88.9    1.12 64.2 1082
5 80.6    1.08 76.5 1971
10 100.0 5.6/10,000 1.47 1.47 0.0 0
10 91.7    1.27 45.3 731
10 88.9    1.24 53.8 1032
10 80.6    1.17 68.5 1921
  1. a Risk ratio of GBS during the ZIKV outbreak, assuming sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 100% for the diagnosis of GBS; b Risk ratio of GBS during the ZIKV outbreak, after accounting for misclassification of GBS; c Proportion of false positive cases of GBS
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