Table 2 Input Data on Disease and Individual Properties

Mean, Range

2, [0.1–7]

[5, 26, 30, 31]

Duration before case becomes infectious

Mean, Range

10, [0.1–20]

[5, 26, 30, 31]

Duration of infectivity prior to symptoms development

Disease Duration

Non-immune

Mean, Range

35, [20–50]

[5, 26, 30, 31]

Full duration of disease from latency to resolution or death

Partially-immune

Mean, Range

7, [3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20]

[5, 26, 30, 31]

Full duration of disease from latency to resolution or death

Household infection rate

Partially-immune case

Mean, Range

0.1, [0 0.5]

[5, 26, 30, 31]

Probability that the individual spreads the infection among household members

Non-immune

Mean, Range

1, [1 1]

[5, 26, 30, 31]

Probability that the individual spreads the infection among household members

Point

0.005

[5, 30, 31]

Probability of paralysis in non-immune cases

Point

0

[5, 30, 31]

Probability of paralysis in partially-immune

Point

0.05

[5, 30, 31]

Probability of developing symptoms in the non-immune cases

Point

0

[5, 30, 31]

Probability of developing symptoms in the partially-immune cases

Contacts per day

Child, within province

Mean, Range

2, [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10]

*

Adult, within province

Mean, Range

2, [1,2,3,4]

*

Child, outside province

Mean, Range

1, [0–3]

*

Adult, outside province

Mean, Range

1, [0–3]

*

Contact distribution across population

Same population

Point

66.70%

*

Percentage of individual contacts that belong to the same population as the case

Different population

Point

33.30%

*

Percentage of individual contacts that do not belong to the same population as the case