Fig. 3

Burden and demographics of the outbreak prevented by the NPIC. a shows the anticipated number of patients who died or were paralyzed due to poliovirus infection in either of the four scenarios. b-e shows the distribution of infected cases across the three different resident populations in Lebanon given the four studied scenarios. f shows the percentage of simulations (among 1000 total simulations) in which polioviral infection propagates to at least one case after the initial case introduction before and after the NPIC. g shows the percentage of simulations (among 1000 total simulations) in which the introduced case results in an outbreak (defined as more than 20 cases within the first 30 days) before and after the NPIC