Fig. 2

Simulation results of outbreak scenarios prior to and after the NPIC depending on site of first case introduction. a-d shows the cumulative number of infected cases in Lebanon within the first month after a single case is introduced to Bekaa, Beirut, North and South sites respectively. The NPIC significantly reduced the total number of infected individuals starting day 4 after the introduction (multiple t-test with 1% FDR, p < 0.001). e, f compares the different scenarios in (A-D) showing that an exponential increase in the number of cases is seen around 10 days after first case introduction regardless of the site only before the NPIC. g compares the evolution of number of cases before and after the NPIC assuming 5 cases of polio were simultaneously introduced to the country, 3 to Bekaa and 2 to North sites (multiple t-test with 1% FDR, p < 0.001). h-k shows the cumulative number of infected cases in Lebanon within the two months after a single case is introduced to Bekaa, Beirut, North and South sites respectively