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Table 1 Predicted values and outbreak signals for each percentile value (Px) for chickenpox during 2014 based on the moving percentile method and outbreak signals based on the ‘mean + 2SD’ gold standard in the CIDARS, Songjiang District of Shanghai, China

From: How to select a proper early warning threshold to detect infectious disease outbreaks based on the China infectious disease automated alert and response system (CIDARS)

  1. Px = percentile (moving window [5 week*5 year], x), x = 0.40, 0.45, 0.50,…, 0.85, 0.90, 0.95 (see colored cells, P40)
  2. Outbreak signal of Px, 1 = potential outbreak, 0 = not potential outbreak