No screening | One-time screening at age | Interval screening at age 55–59, with interval | Interval screening at age 55–64, with interval | Interval screening at age 55–69, with interval | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55y | 59y | 64y | 69y | 4y (2 x) | 2y (3 x) | 1y (5 x) | 4y (3 x) | 2y (5 x) | 1y (10 x) | 4y (4 x) | 2y (8 x) | 1y (15 x) | ||
Predictions for men with average PCa risk | ||||||||||||||
Follow-up biopsies per man under active surveillance (n) | - | 6.7 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
Lifetime prob. of curative local treatment (%) | 4.86 | 5.17 | 5.39 | 5.81 | 6.37 | 5.55 | 5.66 | 5.85 | 6.09 | 6.27 | 6.90 | 6.84 | 7.65 | 8.45 |
Lifetime prob. of curative regional treatment (%) | 1.62 | 1.88 | 2.08 | 2.46 | 2.94 | 2.12 | 2.11 | 2.08 | 2.45 | 2.34 | 2.23 | 2.89 | 2.76 | 2.34 |
Lifetime prob. of curative loco/regional treatment (%) | 6.48 | 7.05 | 7.46 | 8.27 | 9.32 | 7.67 | 7.77 | 7.93 | 8.54 | 8.61 | 9.12 | 9.73 | 10.40 | 10.79 |
Lifetime risk of curative overtreatment (%) | - | 0.57 | 0.98 | 1.79 | 2.84 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 1.45 | 2.06 | 2.13 | 2.64 | 3.25 | 3.92 | 4.31 |
Curative overtreatment in screen-detected PCa (%) | - | 39.04 | 38.74 | 39.34 | 38.53 | 36.73 | 34.31 | 34.36 | 35.64 | 31.93 | 31.73 | 34.76 | 29.41 | 29.60 |
Lifetime risk of dying of PCa (%) | 1.72 | 1.69 | 1.68 | 1.66 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.47 |
Lifetime gained v. no screening (days) | - | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 7.1 |
QALDs gained v. no screening | - | −0.5 | −0.9 | −1.0 | −2.1 | −1.2 | −1.9 | −2.7 | −2.0 | −2.9 | −3.6 | −2.3 | −3.7 | −4.9 |
RP-related deaths per 10,000 men (n) | 0.70 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.15 | 1.26 |
RP- and RT-related AEs per man (n) | 0.029 | 0.031 | 0.032 | 0.035 | 0.039 | 0.033 | 0.034 | 0.035 | 0.037 | 0.038 | 0.041 | 0.042 | 0.047 | 0.051 |
PSA tests needed to avoid 1 death (n) | - | 4042 | 2251 | 1511 | 1145 | 3245 | 4098 | 5860 | 2742 | 3895 | 5482 | 2371 | 3278 | 4807 |
Men needed to be screened to avoid one death (n) | - | 4042 | 2251 | 1511 | 1145 | 1663 | 1408 | 1218 | 966 | 831 | 596 | 651 | 467 | 370 |
Predictions for men with elevated familial PCa risk | ||||||||||||||
Follow-up biopsies per man under active surveillance (n) | - | 5.9 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
Lifetime prob. of curative local treatment (%) | 8.61 | 9.00 | 9.29 | 9.81 | 10.47 | 9.52 | 9.69 | 9.99 | 10.27 | 10.59 | 11.57 | 11.28 | 12.56 | 13.87 |
Lifetime prob. of curative regional treatment (%) | 3.69 | 4.10 | 4.40 | 4.98 | 5.64 | 4.48 | 4.46 | 4.40 | 5.02 | 4.84 | 4.61 | 5.71 | 5.44 | 4.70 |
Lifetime prob. of curative loco/regional treatment (%) | 12.29 | 13.10 | 13.69 | 14.79 | 16.11 | 14.01 | 14.16 | 14.39 | 15.29 | 15.43 | 16.19 | 16.99 | 18.00 | 18.57 |
Lifetime risk of curative overtreatment (%) | - | 0.81 | 1.40 | 2.50 | 3.82 | 1.72 | 1.87 | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.14 | 3.90 | 4.70 | 5.71 | 6.28 |
Curative overtreatment in screen-detected PCa (%) | - | 41.12 | 41.67 | 42.23 | 41.16 | 39.36 | 36.88 | 36.84 | 38.51 | 34.70 | 34.39 | 37.51 | 31.85 | 31.93 |
Lifetime risk of dying of PCa (%) | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.25 | 4.20 | 4.18 | 4.20 | 4.18 | 4.14 | 4.09 | 4.05 | 3.93 | 3.97 | 3.82 | 3.68 |
Lifetime gained v. no screening (days) | - | 3.5 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 18.0 | 15.3 | 20.6 | 26.3 |
QALDs gained v. no screening | - | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 9.5 |
RP-related deaths per 10,000 men (n) | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.44 | 1.49 | 1.59 | 1.47 | 1.48 | 1.53 | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.74 | 1.72 | 1.90 | 2.07 |
RP- and RT-related AEs per man (n) | 0.052 | 0.055 | 0.058 | 0.062 | 0.067 | 0.059 | 0.060 | 0.062 | 0.065 | 0.066 | 0.072 | 0.072 | 0.079 | 0.086 |
PSA tests needed to avoid 1 death (n) | - | 1429 | 843 | 560 | 429 | 1196 | 1535 | 2055 | 1015 | 1417 | 1962 | 873 | 1192 | 1747 |
Men needed to be screened to avoid one death (n) | - | 1429 | 843 | 560 | 429 | 615 | 531 | 431 | 360 | 306 | 217 | 243 | 173 | 138 |