Table 1 Parameters of the Oncotyrol PCOP Model with annual time cycles

 Prob. to exit the no cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit local G < 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit local G = 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit local G > 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit regional G < 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit regional G = 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit regional G > 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit distant G < 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit distant G = 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to exit distant G > 7 cancer state (p / scale / shape)^a

calibrated [41]

 Familial risk factor on PCa onset and progression functions^a

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of local G < 7 cancer progress to regional

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of local G = 7 cancer progress to regional

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of regional G < 7 cancer progress to distant

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of regional G = 7 cancer progress to distant

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to die from PCa conditional on survival

[53]

 Age-specific prob. to die from other causes

[54]

 Prob. of local G < 7 cancer to be clinically detected

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of local G = 7 cancer to be clinically detected

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of local G > 7 cancer to be clinically detected

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of regional G < 7 cancer to be clinically detected

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of regional G = 7 cancer to be clinically detected

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of regional G > 7 cancer to be clinically detected

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of distant G < 7 cancer to be clinically detected

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of distant G = 7 cancer to be clinically detected

calibrated [41]

 Prob. of distant G > 7 cancer to be clinically detected

Assumption

 Prob. to participate in screening

Assumption

 Prob. to detect local cancer by screening (Age < 70)

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to detect local cancer by screening (Age 70+)

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to detect regional/distant PCa by screening (Age < 70)

calibrated [41]

 Prob. to detect regional/distant PCa by screening (Age 70+)

calibrated [41]

 Spec. of PSA (to account for disutility by unnecessary biopsies)

[55]

 Sens. of biopsy (to account for disutility by false neg. Biopsies)

[56, 57]

 Spec. of biopsy

Assumption

 Probability of cure given local/regional cancer (G < 7)

[50]

 Probability of cure given local/regional cancer (G = 7)

[50]

 Probability of cure given local/regional cancer (G > 7)

[50]

 Probability of cure given distant cancer (All G)

[58]

 Risk to die from prostatectomy (30 Day mortality)

[55]

 Risk of erectile dysfunction attributable to prostatectomy

[13]

 Risk of erectile dysfunction attributable to radiotherapy

[13]

 Risk of urinary incontinence attributable to prostatectomy

[13]

 Risk of urinary incontinence attributable to radiotherapy

[13]

 Risk of bowel dysfunction attributable to prostatectomy

[13]

 Risk of bowel dysfunction attributable to radiotherapy

[13]

 Duration of treatment related dysfunctions

[59]

 Utility without clinical distant PCa and treatment complication^b

[60]

 Utility of clinical distant cancer

[37]

 Utility of erectile dysfunction by RP (PCI score 0–25)

[37, 59, 61]

 Utility of erectile dysfunction by RT (PCI score > 25–50)

[37, 59, 61]

 Utility of urinary incontinence by RP (PCI score > 50–75)

[37, 59, 61]

 Utility of urinary incontinence by RT (PCI score > 75–100)

[37, 59, 61]

 Utility of bowel dysfunction by RP (PCI score > 75–100)

[37, 59, 61]

 Utility of bowel dysfunction by RT (PCI score > 75–100)

[37, 59, 61]

 One-time relative utility for biopsy

calc. from [37]

 One-time relative utility for RP

calc. from [37]

 One-time relative utility for RT

calc. from [37]

 One-time relative utility for terminal PCa

calc. from [37]