Table 5 Results, main scenario and sensitivity analyses
Results per scenario | Total HALYs saved | Total healthcare cost savings (AUD 2010) | Net cost per HALY saved (with cost offsets) (ICER, AUD 2010) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Main scenario | Main scenario BMI/PA/injury effect | 237 (95% UI 138–351) | $2,552,925 (95% UI $1,304,017–$3,905,568) | $7702 saved per HALY (95% UI $1366–$22,125) (Probability of cost-effectiveness 99.7%) (Probability of cost-saving 0.8%) |
Main scenario BMI effect only | 195 (95% UI 85–314) | $2,310,366 (95% UI $962,352–$3,762,993) | $10,514 saved per HALY (95% UI $1843–$39,990) (Probability of cost-effectiveness 98.4%) (Probability of cost-saving 0.3%) | |
One-way sensitivity analyses | Cross price elasticity 1 (0.82 from Holmgren [78]) | 2769 (95% UI 1614–4056) | $29,928,506 (95% UI $15,124,893–$45,413,548) | Dominant (Probability of cost-effectiveness 100%) (Probability of cost-saving 99.95%) |
Cross price elasticity 2 (1.15 from Holmgren [78]) | 3882 (95% UI 2233–5714) | $42,000,179 (95% UI $20,713,001–$63,854,358) | Dominant (Probability of cost-effectiveness 100%) (Probability of cost-saving 100%) | |
Distance walked 800 m | 472 (95% UI 258–705) | $5,098,746 (95% UI $2,422,181–$7,810,093) | Dominant (Probability of cost-effectiveness 99.95%) (Probability of cost-saving 71%) | |
“Plausible case” | “Plausible case” scenario – BMI/PA/injury effect | 3181 (95% UI 1797–4633) | $34,239,586 (95% UI $17,433,480–$51,336,591) | Dominant (Probability of cost-effectiveness 100%) (Probability of cost-saving 100%) |
“Plausible case” scenario – BMI only | 2532 (95% UI 1084–4098) | $30,222,697 (95% UI $12,875,579–$47,444,286) | Dominant (Probability of cost-effectiveness 100%) (Probability of cost-saving 99.9%) | |