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Table 5 Results, main scenario and sensitivity analyses

From: Obesity-related health impacts of fuel excise taxation- an evidence review and cost-effectiveness study

Results per scenario Total HALYs saved Total healthcare cost savings
(AUD 2010)
Net cost per HALY saved
(with cost offsets)
(ICER, AUD 2010)
Main scenario Main scenario
BMI/PA/injury effect
237
(95% UI 138–351)
$2,552,925
(95% UI $1,304,017–$3,905,568)
$7702 saved per HALY
(95% UI $1366–$22,125)
(Probability of cost-effectiveness 99.7%)
(Probability of cost-saving 0.8%)
Main scenario
BMI effect only
195
(95% UI 85–314)
$2,310,366
(95% UI $962,352–$3,762,993)
$10,514 saved per HALY
(95% UI $1843–$39,990)
(Probability of cost-effectiveness 98.4%)
(Probability of cost-saving 0.3%)
One-way sensitivity analyses Cross price elasticity 1
(0.82 from Holmgren [78])
2769
(95% UI 1614–4056)
$29,928,506
(95% UI $15,124,893–$45,413,548)
Dominant
(Probability of cost-effectiveness 100%)
(Probability of cost-saving 99.95%)
Cross price elasticity 2
(1.15 from Holmgren [78])
3882
(95% UI 2233–5714)
$42,000,179
(95% UI $20,713,001–$63,854,358)
Dominant
(Probability of cost-effectiveness 100%)
(Probability of cost-saving 100%)
Distance walked 800 m 472
(95% UI 258–705)
$5,098,746
(95% UI $2,422,181–$7,810,093)
Dominant
(Probability of cost-effectiveness 99.95%)
(Probability of cost-saving 71%)
“Plausible case” “Plausible case” scenario – BMI/PA/injury effect 3181
(95% UI 1797–4633)
$34,239,586
(95% UI $17,433,480–$51,336,591)
Dominant
(Probability of cost-effectiveness 100%)
(Probability of cost-saving 100%)
“Plausible case” scenario – BMI only 2532
(95% UI 1084–4098)
$30,222,697
(95% UI $12,875,579–$47,444,286)
Dominant
(Probability of cost-effectiveness 100%)
(Probability of cost-saving 99.9%)
  1. Table notes: Reported values are medians. AUD Australian dollars, HALY health adjusted life year, 95% UI 95% uncertainty interval, BMI body mass index, PA physical activity, ICER incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, MET metabolic equivalent task, m metres