Parameters for ‘plausible case’ scenario analysis | Mean values and 95% UIa (where applicable) | Sources and assumptions | |
---|---|---|---|
Intervention effect | |||
Cross price elasticity for public transport with respect to fuel price | 0.37 (95% UI -0.24-0.97) | Sampled from a normal distribution, taken from mean cross price elasticity as reported by Holmgren 2007 [78]. Derived increase in the prevalence of PT commuting of 3.3% [38]. Modelled to PA/BMI effect. Assumed all new public transport users were previous car drivers, a reasonable assumption given the high prevalence of driving to work in Australia [38]. | |
Average annual retail fuel price (national, metropolitan) (cents per litre) | 125.39 (95% UI 124.95–125.83) | Sampled from a gamma distribution, from national metropolitan fuel price [102]. As per primary analysis. | |
Prevalence of using public transport for commuting purposes | Males 18y-4.5% 19y-5.8% 20-24y-8.5% 25-29y-11.7% 30-34y-11.1% 35-39y-9.1% 40-44y-7.4% 45-49y-6.3% 50-54y-5.8% 55-59y-4.9% 60-64y-3.3% | Females 18y-6.9% 19y-8% 20-24y-11.1% 25-29y-13.1% 30-34y-9.9% 35-39y-6.8% 40-44y-5.9% 45-49y-5.7% 50-54y-5.3% 55-59y-4.5% 60-64y-2.9% | ABS Census 2011 [38]. As per primary analysis. |
Marginal MET value for walking to access public transport | 3 | MET value for walking to work or class of 4 from Ainsworth et al. 2011 [81], adjusted for inactivity. Sampled using a lognormal distribution (stdev 1.6 from Gotschi et al. 2015 [103]). | |
Average distance a person will walk to access public transport (metres) | 800 | Based on ‘rule of thumb’ planning guideline for distance walked to bus/tram access points. | |
Comfortable gait speed (cm/s) | As per primary analysis. | ||
Number of weeks of intervention effect (averaged over year) | As per primary analysis |