Impact of weight maintenance and loss on diabetes risk and burden: a population-based study in 33,184 participants

Table 4 Overall association between change in BMI or relative weight and diabetes risk, and population attributable fractions for maintenance or decrease in weight over 10 years. Vӓsterbotten Intervention Programme 1990–2013

	Total (n)	Diabetes events (n)	%	OR	95% CI	PAF
	Total (n)	Diabetes events (n)	%	OR	95% CI	Model^a	(%)	95% CI
Change in BMI between baseline and 10 year follow-up, Δkg/m² (mean, SD)
Any gain (> +1.0 kg/m²)	17,876	701	3.9	1.52	1.32, 1.74	–	–
Maintenance (±1.0 kg/m²)	12,020	317	2.6	1.00	Ref	i	21.9	15.8, 27.6
Moderate loss (−1.0 to −2.0 kg/m²)	1,923	45	2.3	0.72	0.52, 0.99	ii	42.4	24.3, 56.1
Large loss (> −2.0 kg/m²)	1,365	24	1.8	0.39	0.25, 0.60	iii	68.6	53.5, 78.9
Weight change between baseline and 10 year follow-up, relative to baseline weight
Any gain (> +3.0%)	18,797	705	3.8	1.51	1.31, 1.75	–	–
Maintenance (±3.0%)	9,663	277	2.9	1.00	Ref	i	22.0	15.5, 28.0
Moderate loss (−3.0 to −7.0%)	2,845	68	2.4	0.76	0.58, 1.00	ii	38.2	23.4, 50.0
Large loss (> −7.0%)	1,879	37	2.0	0.51	0.36, 0.73	iii	57.5	41.8, 68.9

OR estimates adjusted for BMI at baseline (continuous) and the co-variates sex, age at baseline (30, 40 or 50 years), calendar year at baseline (continuous), educational level, marital status, family history of diabetes and tobacco use
BMI Body mass index, CI Confidence interval, OR Odds ratio, PAF Population attributable fraction
^aThe assumed counterfactuals were: weight maintenance vs. any gain (i), moderate weight loss vs. maintenance or any gain (ii), and large weight loss vs. moderate loss or maintenance or any gain (iii)

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