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Table 4 Overall association between change in BMI or relative weight and diabetes risk, and population attributable fractions for maintenance or decrease in weight over 10 years. Vӓsterbotten Intervention Programme 1990–2013

From: Impact of weight maintenance and loss on diabetes risk and burden: a population-based study in 33,184 participants

  Total (n) Diabetes events (n) % OR 95% CI PAF
Modela (%) 95% CI
Change in BMI between baseline and 10 year follow-up, Δkg/m2 (mean, SD)
 Any gain (> +1.0 kg/m2) 17,876 701 3.9 1.52 1.32, 1.74  
 Maintenance (±1.0 kg/m2) 12,020 317 2.6 1.00 Ref i 21.9 15.8, 27.6
 Moderate loss (−1.0 to −2.0 kg/m2) 1,923 45 2.3 0.72 0.52, 0.99 ii 42.4 24.3, 56.1
 Large loss (> −2.0 kg/m2) 1,365 24 1.8 0.39 0.25, 0.60 iii 68.6 53.5, 78.9
Weight change between baseline and 10 year follow-up, relative to baseline weight
 Any gain (> +3.0%) 18,797 705 3.8 1.51 1.31, 1.75  
 Maintenance (±3.0%) 9,663 277 2.9 1.00 Ref i 22.0 15.5, 28.0
 Moderate loss (−3.0 to −7.0%) 2,845 68 2.4 0.76 0.58, 1.00 ii 38.2 23.4, 50.0
 Large loss (> −7.0%) 1,879 37 2.0 0.51 0.36, 0.73 iii 57.5 41.8, 68.9
  1. OR estimates adjusted for BMI at baseline (continuous) and the co-variates sex, age at baseline (30, 40 or 50 years), calendar year at baseline (continuous), educational level, marital status, family history of diabetes and tobacco use
  2. BMI Body mass index, CI Confidence interval, OR Odds ratio, PAF Population attributable fraction
  3. aThe assumed counterfactuals were: weight maintenance vs. any gain (i), moderate weight loss vs. maintenance or any gain (ii), and large weight loss vs. moderate loss or maintenance or any gain (iii)