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Table 3 Association between weight change over 10 years and diabetes risk. Vӓsterbotten Intervention Programme 1990–2013

From: Impact of weight maintenance and loss on diabetes risk and burden: a population-based study in 33,184 participants

  BMI at baseline (kg/m2)
<25.0 25.0–29.9 30.0–34.9 ≥35.0
OR 95% CI OR 95% CI OR 95% CI OR 95% CI
BMI at 10 year follow-up (model 1)
 <25.0 1.00 Ref 0.63 0.40, 0.98 0.78 0.10, 5.94 -  
 25.0–29.9 1.71 1.35, 2.16 1.00 Ref 0.47 0.26, 0.87 0.47 0.06, 3.70
 30.0–34.9 4.18 2.07, 8.43 1.62 1.31, 2.01 1.00 Ref 0.53 0.18, 1.54
 ≥35.0 19.52 4.16, 91.49 5.17 3.14, 8.50 1.87 1.37, 2.56 1.00 Ref
Continuous change in BMI, per unit BMI (1 kg/m2) (model 2)
 All 1.24 1.18, 1.31 1.18 1.14, 1.23 1.17 1.11, 1.23 1.13 1.05, 1.21
Age at baseline
 30 1.11 0.94, 1.30 1.08 0.90, 1.28 1.02 0.82, 1.26 1.24 1.00–1.54
 40 1.28 1.17, 1.39 1.21 1.14, 1.29 1.16 1.07, 1.25 1.10 1.00–1.22
 50 1.26 1.18, 1.35 1.18 1.12, 1.24 1.19 1.10, 1.28 1.09 0.97–1.22
Weight change between baseline and 10 year follow-up, relative to baseline weight (model 3)
 Large gain (> +7.0%) 2.18 1.63, 2.93 1.76 1.40, 2.21 1.65 1.16, 2.35 1.15 0.55, 2.44
 Moderate gain (+3.0 to +7.0%) 1.39 0.99, 1.95 1.16 0.90, 1.50 0.99 1.65, 1.61 1.02 0.42, 2.49
 Maintenance (±3.0%) 1.00 Ref 1.00 Ref 1.00 Ref 1.00 Ref
 Moderate loss (−3.0 to −7.0%) 1.24 0.76, 2.03 0.72 0.48, 1.06 0.38 0.19, 0.79 0.79 0.26, 2.41
 Large loss (> −7.0%) 0.87 0.42, 1.84 0.61 0.37, 1.01 0.41 0.20, 0.84 0.12 0.02, 0.54
  1. Estimates adjusted for BMI at baseline (continuous) and the co-variates sex, age at baseline (30, 40 or 50 years), calendar year at baseline (continuous), educational level, marital status, family history of diabetes and tobacco use
  2. BMI Body mass index, CI Confidence interval, OR Odds ratio