Fig. 2

Modelled estimated probability and 95% CI of incident diabetes detected at 10 year follow-up by relative weight change between baseline and 10 year follow-up, and BMI category at baseline (model 4). Vӓsterbotten Intervention Programme 1990–2013. The grey vertical bar indicates weight maintenance (±3%). Estimated probabilities adjusted for absolute BMI at baseline (continuous) and the co-variates sex, age at baseline (30, 40 or 50 years), calendar year at baseline (continuous), educational level, marital status, family history of diabetes and tobacco use. BMI Body Mass Index, CI Confidence Interval