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Table 1 Input data values: base-case values, associated ranges, probabilities distributions assumed and sources

From: Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model

Inputs Value (range)   Source
Population data
 11-years old women cohort 264,489 - [4]
Transition probabilities
 HPV onc regression 0.50 (0.23; 0.77) Uniform (0.23; 0.77) [18, 64]
 HPV onc to CIN1 progression 0.05 (0.03; 0.07) Normal (0.03; 0.07) [18, 64]
 CIN1 onc regression 0.36 (0.22; 0.78) Normal (0.22; 0.78) [18, 64]
 CIN1 onc to CIN2/3 progression 0.14 (0.08; 0.16) Normal (0.08; 0.16) [18, 64]
 CIN2/3 regression to no HPV 0.25 (0.23; 0.32) Normal (0.23; 0.32) [18, 64]
 CIN2/3 progression to cancer 0.14 (0.10; 0.15) Normal (0.10; 0.15) [18, 64]
 HPV low-risk CIN1 0.04 (0.03; 0.05) Normal (0.03; 0.05) [18, 64]
 Genital wart resistance 0.35 (0.28; 0.42) Uniform (0.28; 0.42) [65]
 Proportion CIN1 onc detected and treated 0.30 (0.24; 0.36) Uniform (0.24; 0.36) Exp. Op
 CIN1 treatment success 0.94 (0.75; 1.00) Uniform (0.75; 1.00) [35]
 Proportion CIN2/3 detected and treated 0.90 (0.72; 1.00) Uniform (0.72; 1.00) Exp. Op
 CIN2/3 treatment success 0.88 (0.70; 1.00) Uniform (0.70; 1.00) [35]
Utility weights
 No HPV 1.000 - [18]
 HPV 1.000 - [18]
 Genital Wart 0.02 (0.02; 0.02) Uniform (0.02; 0.02) [18]
 CIN1 1.000 - [18]
 CIN1 detected 0.01 (0.01; 0.02) Uniform (0.01; 0.02) [18]
 CIN2/3 1.000 - [18]
 CIN2/3 detected 0.01 (0.01; 0.01) Uniform (0.01; 0.01) [18]
 Cancer 0.27 (0.22; 0.33) Uniform (0.22; 0.33) [18]
 Cancer cured 0.06 (0.05; 0.07) Uniform (0.05; 0.07) [18]
 Death 0.000 - [18]
Screening Characteristics
 Regular screening coverage 35% - [21]
 Interval between regular screening 3 years (& scenario of 5y) - [37]
 Irregular screening coverage 25% - Exp. Op
 Population without screening 40% - Exp. Op
 Age of initiation of screening 25 years - [21]
 Sensitivity to detect CIN1 0.58 (0.38; 0.56) Normal (0.38; 0.56) [22]
 Sensitivity to detect CIN2 and CIN3 0.61 (0.69; 0.87) Normal (0.69; 0.87) [22]
 Estimated positive Pap smear 0.05 (0.05; 0.06) Uniform (0.04; 0.06) Exp. Op
Parameters to estimate vaccine effectiveness
 Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in cervical cancer 0.80 (0.64; 0.96) Uniform (0.64; 0.96) [15]
 Prevalence of other oncogenic HPV in cervical cancer 0.16 (0.13; 0.19) Uniform (0.13; 0.19) [15]
 Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in CIN2/3 0.55 (0.44; 0.66) Uniform (0.44; 0.66) [14]
 Prevalence of other oncogenic HPV in CIN2/3 0.34 (0.27; 0.41) Uniform (0.27; 0.41) [14]
 Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in CIN1 0.27 (0.21; 0.32) Uniform (0.21; 0.32) [14]
 Prevalence of other oncogenic HPV in CIN1 0.28 (0.22; 0.33) Uniform (0.22; 0.33) [14]
 Prevalence of HPV types 6 and 11 in CIN1 0.14 (0.11; 0.17) Uniform (0.11; 0.17) [14]
 Prevalence of HPV types 6 and 11 in GW 0.95 (0.76; 1.00) Uniform (0.76; 1.00) [33]
 Vaccine efficacy to HPV types 16 and 18 CC (Bivalent) 0.98 (0.94; 1.00) Normal (0.94; 1.00) [43, 44]
 Vaccine efficacy to HPV types 16 and 18 CC (Quadrivalent) 0.98 (0.94; 1.00) Normal (0.94; 1.00) [45]
 Vaccine efficacy to HPV types 16 and 18 CIN2/3 (Bivalent) 0.98 (0.97; 0.99) Normal (0.97; 0.99) [43, 44]
 Vaccine efficacy to HPV types 16 and 18 CIN2/3 (Quadrivalent) 0.98 (0.97; 0.99) Normal (0.97; 0.99) [45]
 Vaccine efficacy to HPV types16 and 18 CIN1 (Bivalent) 0.98 (0.97; 0.99) Normal (0.97; 0.99) [43, 44]
 Vaccine efficacy to HPV types16 and 18 CIN1 (Quadrivalent) 0.98 (0.97; 0.99) Normal (0.97; 0.99) [45]
 Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CC (Bivalent) 0.68 (0.68; 0.68) Normal (0.68; 0.68) [47,48,49,50]
 Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CC (Quadrivalent) 0.33 (0.33; 0.33) Normal (0.33; 0.33) [46]
 Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CIN2/3 (Bivalent) 0.68 (0.68; 0.68) Normal (0.68; 0.68) [47,48,49,50]
 Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CIN2/3 (Quadrivalent) 0.33 (0.33; 0.33) Normal (0.33; 0.33) [46]
 Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CIN1 (Bivalent) 0.48 (0.48; 0.48) Normal (0.48; 0.48) [47,48,49,50]
 Vaccine efficacy to other oncogenic HPV CIN1 (Quadrivalent) 0.23 (0.23; 0.23) Normal (0.23; 0.23) [46]
 Vaccine efficacy to HPV types 6 and 11 (Quadrivalent) 0.98 (0.94; 1.00) Normal (0.94; 1.00) [66, 67]
 GW incidence (10-79 years) 0.17% (0.089; 0.245) Truncated Normal (Mean; range) [31]
Costs
 Regular screening (Bs.F) $2,943 (2,207; 3,678) Uniform (2,207; 3,678) see costs section
 CIN1Onc newly detected (Bs.F) $20,749 (15,562; 25,936) Uniform (15,562; 25,936)
 CIN2/3 newly detected (Bs.F) $22,230 (16,672; 27,787) Uniform (16,672; 27,787)
 CIN1Onc det (Bs.F) $15,284 (11,463; 19,105) Uniform (11,463; 19,105)
 CIN2/3 det (Bs.F) $28,355 (21,266; 35,444) Uniform (21,266; 35,444)
 Cancer (Bs.F) $273,788 (205,341; 342,234) Uniform (205,341; 342,234)
 Genital Wart (Bs.F) $9,568 (7,176; 11,960) Uniform (7,176; 11,960)
 Vaccine bivalent (per dose) (USD) $ 8.5 -
 Vaccine quadrivalent (per dose) USD; Scenarios 1-4 $ 8.5 -
 Vaccine quadrivalent (per dose) USD; Scenerios 5-8 $ 13.8 -
  1. Abbreviations: NIS National Institute of Statistics, MoH Ministry of Health, VEF Venezuelan bolívar fuerte, US$ United States dollar, Exp. Op expert opinion, BV bivalent, QV quadrivalent, CIN cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, CC cervical cancer, HPV human papillomavirus, VE vaccine efficacy, GW genital wart, y year