Assessing the external validity of model-based estimates of the incidence of heart attack in England: a modelling study

Table 2 Number of first AMI events in England, 2010

	Number		Incidence rate per 100,000 (and 95 % confidence intervals)
	External Dataset	DisMod II^a	External Dataset	DisMod II^a	% difference
Men
0–29	105	1588	1 (1, 1)	16	1412
30–54	7035	12,558	79 (77, 81)	141	79
55–64	8446	13,919	282 (276, 288)	465	65
65–74	9674	16,703	451 (442, 460)	779	73
75–84	10,451	14,147	828 (812, 844)	1121	35
85+	5978	5487	1521 (1483, 1559)	1396	−8
Total	41,689	64,401	162 (160, 163)	250	54
Women
0–29	38	88	0 (0, 1)	1	132
30–54	1752	3091	19 (19, 20)	34	76
55–64	2573	6664	83 (79, 86)	214	159
65–74	4817	9534	205 (200, 211)	407	98
75–84	8640	8490	521 (510, 532)	512	−2
85+	8911	5903	1107 (1084, 1130)	733	−34
Total	26,731	33,769	101 (100, 102)	128	26

^aThe DisMod II results are those estimated without the application of trend data

ISSN: 1471-2458