Table 8 Results of sensitivity analysis outlined in Additional file 1 for medicinal poisoning decision model. Only results for the three interventions (usual care, education and low cost equipment) are presented
Expected QALYs | Expected Costs (£s) | Incremental QALYs | Incremental Costs (£s) | ICER (£s per QALY) | Probability intervention is cost-effective at £30,000/QALY | Probability intervention is cost-effective at £50,000/QALY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA1: Probability that intervention is effective changed from Posterior to the Predictive distribution of intervention effects and baseline rate | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4169 (2872, 6045) | 0.850 | 0.453 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5463 (4221, 7319) | 0.027 (0.001, 0.059) | 1298 (1108, 1498) | 47160 (19917, 1361570) | 0.150 | 0.540 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 6300 (5032, 8163) | 0.028 (0.002, 0.06) | 2140 (1926, 2360) | 74625 (33405, 1498841) | 0.000 | 0.006 |
SA2: Baseline probability of safe storage changed from 75 % (KCS community controls) to 93 % (Patel et al 2008) | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 3158 (2030, 4720) | 0.998 | 0.867 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4056 (2938, 5599) | 0.013 (0.006, 0.023) | 898 (824, 957) | 71065 (37747, 150605) | 0.002 | 0.133 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4302 (3184, 5850) | 0.013 (0.006, 0.024) | 1139 (1052, 1227) | 87285 (46839, 184910) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
SA3: Baseline probability of safe storage changed from 75 % (KCS community controls) to 50 % (Assumption) | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4903 (3542, 7022) | 0.942 | 0.59 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 6885 (5585, 8921) | 0.037 (0.017, 0.074) | 1985 (1816, 2121) | 53970 (26110, 126315) | 0.058 | 0.41 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 8567 (7273, 10620) | 0.036 (0.014, 0.073) | 3671 (3458, 3861) | 101700 (48946, 270812) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
SA4: Probability intervention is accepted changed from 90 to 50 % (Assumption) | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4169 (2872, 6045) | 0.979 | 0.745 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5227 (3965, 7059) | 0.017 (0.008, 0.033) | 1061 (970.192, 1130) | 62195 (30779, 134700) | 0.02 | 0.254 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5693 (4429, 7527) | 0.017 (0.009, 0.034) | 1526 (1423, 1618) | 87356 (43931, 178215) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
SA5: Proportion admitted changed from 63 % (HSE, 2012) to 83.3 % (Phil Miller, personal communication) | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5140 (3430, 7606) | 0.625 | 0.146 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 6358 (4711, 8776) | 0.036 (0.018, 0.066) | 1214 (1023, 1372) | 33630 (17180, 74539) | 0.374 | 0.852 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 7202 (5548, 9627) | 0.036 (0.018, 0.068) | 2043 (1829, 2242) | 55495 (28904, 118515) | 0.000 | 0.002 |
SA6: Provided two pop it locks costing £2.65 per lock. | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4169 (2872, 6045) | 0.828 | 0.298 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5435 (4197, 7271) | 0.031 (0.015, 0.059) | 1273 (1110, 1398) | 41330 (20007, 91534) | 0.17 | 0.677 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5787 (4548, 7596) | 0.031 (0.016, 0.061) | 1629 (1462, 1772) | 51685 (25478, 107910) | 0.002 | 0.026 |
SA7: Provided two magnetic locks costing £4.80 per lock. | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4169 (2872, 6045) | 0.828 | 0.301 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5435 (4197, 7271) | 0.031 (0.015, 0.059) | 1273 (1110, 1398) | 41330 (20007, 91534) | 0.172 | 0.698 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 6751 (5491, 8585) | 0.031 (0.016, 0.061) | 2592 (2383, 2779) | 82570 (41555, 16911) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
SA8: Increase the number of children in a household from 1 to 1.8 | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4169 (2872, 6045) | 0.242 | 0.026 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5435 (4197, 7271) | 0.031 (0.015, 0.059) | 1273 (1110, 1398) | 22960 (11118, 50852) | 0.755 | 0.962 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 6270 (5027, 8099) | 0.031 (0.016, 0.061) | 2111 (1926, 2275) | 37210 (18628, 77301) | 0.003 | 0.012 |
SA9: Change incidence of medically reported poisonings from 30.1 to 44.9 per 10,000 person-years (rate of unintentional poisonings among under 5 year olds in the 4th most deprived quintile, Orton et al 2014 [10]) | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5963 (3814, 8986) | 0.226 | 0.040 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 7110 (5119, 10070) | 0.06 (0.023, 0.179) | 1171 (911, 1355) | 19315 (6049, 54810) | 0.764 | 0.929 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 7958 (5944, 10882) | 0.062 (0.024, 0.183) | 2002 (1721, 2215) | 32024.99 (10358, 85853) | 0.010 | 0.030 |
SA10: Change incidence of medically reported poisonings from 30.1 to 48.5 per 10,000 person-years (rate of unintentional poisonings among under 5 year olds in the 5th most deprived quintile, Orton et al 2014 [10]) | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 6380 (4239, 9731) | 0.172 | 0.031 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 7539 (5451, 10751) | 0.062 (0.024, 0.182) | 1148.5 (879, 1339) | 18275 (5599, 51842) | 0.818 | 0.938 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 8375 (6296, 11590) | 0.063 (0.026, 0.189) | 1983 (1695, 2208) | 30759.974 (9962, 81214) | 0.010 | 0.030 |
SA11: Change estimate of standard error of utility decrements from 10 to 20 % of mean utility decrement value (assumption) | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4131 (2842, 6011) | 0.800 | 0.800 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5409 (4187, 7176) | 0.031 (0.015, 0.062) | 1289 (1125, 1426) | 40770 (19540, 92562) | 0.200 | 0.200 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 6283 (5038, 8041) | 0.032 (0.016, 0.064) | 2152 (1960, 2332) | 66850 (32697, 141502) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
SA12: Change estimate of standard error of utility decrements from 10 to 50 % of mean utility decrement value (assumption) | |||||||
UC | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 4095 (2899, 6038) | 0.794 | 0.304 | |||
E | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 5382 (4238, 7217) | 0.031 (0.014, 0.062) | 1290 (1124, 1420) | 41265 (19450, 100505) | 0.206 | 0.696 |
FE | 25060 (25040, 25070) | 6257 (5082, 8100) | 0.032 (0.014, 0.063) | 2155 (1966, 2332) | 66825 (32717, 160607) | 0.000 | 0.000 |