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Table 2 Sensitivity analysis of the effect on the outcome of variation in model parameters

From: Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

Parameter tested

Total stroke incidence over 20 years

Total stroke DALYs over 20 years

Total stroke prevalence over 20 years

Total stroke health care costs over 20 years (billion ZAR)

Tax rate

    

 10 %

−50 457

321 750

−7 538

−3.0

 20 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−5.1

 30 %

−109 435

706 570

−16 168

−6.6

Discount rate

    

 0 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−5.1

 1 %

−87 824

494 539

−13 165

−4.8

 2 %

−88 646

441 074

−13 197

−4.3

 3 %

−89 648

397 838

−13 300

−4.0

SSB portion size

    

 200 ml

−19 395

129 488

−2 760

−1.0

 250 ml

−46 150

296 910

−6 882

−2.7

 330 ml

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−5.1

 500 ml

−174 008

1 107 665

−26 115

−10.6

Health care costs

    

 120 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−6.3

 110 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−6.0

 100 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−5.1

 90 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−4.8

 80 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−4.1

pYLD

    

 100 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−5.1

 105 %

−85 766

556 926

−12 860

−5.1

 110 %

−85 766

541 548

−12 860

−5.1

BMI trend

    

 0

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−5.1

 0.1

−99 427

622 762

−15 432

−5.8

 0.2

−109 060

673 237

−17 269

−6.1

 0.3

−113 568

707 078

−18 015

−6.3

Pass on rate

    

 80 %

−74 637

477 949

−11 146

−4.5

 90 %

−81 846

524 691

−12 198

−4.9

 100 %

−85 766

546 762

−12 860

−5.1

Lower own price elasticity (−0.85)

−32 205

211 543

−4 686

−1.8