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Table 3 Absolute reduction in smoking prevalence, CHD deaths prevented or postponed (DPP), and Life years gained (LYG)

From: The effects of maximising the UK’s tobacco control score on inequalities in smoking prevalence and premature coronary heart disease mortality: a modelling study

   

Absolute reduction in smoking prevalence

CHD DPP

LYG from DPP

Men

IMDQ1

Ages 35–44

2.0 % (0.9–3.3 %)

10 (5–20)

400 (200–600)

  

Ages 45–54

1.8 % (0.8–2.9 %)

40 (30–60)

800 (600–1300)

  

Ages 55–64

1.4 % (0.5–2.5 %)

70 (50–110)

1100 (800–1600)

  

Ages 65–74

1.0 % (0.1–2.0 %)

60 (40–90)

300 (200–500)

 

IMDQ2

Ages 35–44

2.9 % (1.7–4.2 %)

20 (10–30)

700 (400–1000)

  

Ages 45–54

2.3 % (1.2–3.4 %)

60 (50–80)

1300 (1000–1800)

  

Ages 55–64

1.8 % (0.7–2.9 %)

110 (80–140)

1600 (1200–2100)

  

Ages 65–74

1.3 % (0.3–2.4 %)

100 (70–140)

600 (400–800)

 

IMDQ3

Ages 35–44

3.5 % (2.2–4.8 %)

30 (20–40)

800 (500–1200)

  

Ages 45–54

3.0 % (1.8–4.3 %)

90 (70–130)

2000 (1400–2700)

  

Ages 55–64

2.7 % (1.4–4.0 %)

190 (130–260)

2700 (1900–3700)

  

Ages 65–74

1.5 % (0.4–2.6 %)

130 (90–190)

800 (500–1200)

 

IMDQ4

Ages 35–44

4.3 % (2.7–5.6 %)

40 (20–50)

1100 (700–1700)

  

Ages 45–54

3.9 % (2.4–5.3 %)

130 (100–170)

2800 (2000–3700)

  

Ages 55–64

3.2 % (1.6–4.6 %)

240 (180–340)

3500 (2500–4800)

  

Ages 65–74

2.6 % (0.9–4.1 %)

220 (150–310)

1500 (900–2400)

 

IMDQ5

Ages 35–44

5.5 % (3.3–7.2 %)

50 (30–70)

1500 (900–2100)

  

Ages 45–54

5.4 % (3.2–7.2 %)

180 (130–240)

3800 (2600–4900)

  

Ages 55–64

4.9 % (2.6–6.8 %)

360 (250–470)

4900 (3400–6400)

  

Ages 65–74

3.7 % (1.5–5.6 %)

300 (200–420)

2000 (1200–3500)

Women

IMDQ1

Ages 35–44

1.5 % (0.5–2.5 %)

1 (0–2)

30 (0–80)

  

Ages 45–54

1.4 % (0.5–2.3 %)

6 (4–9)

160 (100–240)

  

Ages 55–64

1.2 % (0.3–2.2 %)

20 (10–30)

340 (230–520)

  

Ages 65–74

0.9 % (0.1–1.8 %)

25 (20–40)

600 (400–800)

 

IMDQ2

Ages 35–44

2.1 % (1.0–3.1 %)

1 (0–3)

50 (0–100)

  

Ages 45–54

1.9 % (0.9–2.8 %)

8 (6–12)

230 (170–340)

  

Ages 55–64

1.7 % (0.7–2.8 %)

30 (20–40)

600 (400–800)

  

Ages 65–74

1.1 % (0.2–2.0 %)

40 (30–60)

900 (600–1300)

 

IMDQ3

Ages 35–44

2.7 % (1.5–3.8 %)

3(0–7)

100 (0–300)

  

Ages 45–54

2.5 % (1.4–3.6 %)

15(10–25)

400 (300–600)

  

Ages 55–64

2.3 % (1.1–3.4 %)

50(30–70)

900 (600–1300)

  

Ages 65–74

1.4 % (0.4–2.4 %)

60(40–90)

1200 (800–1700)

 

IMDQ4

Ages 35–44

3.3 % (1.9–4.5 %)

6 (0–13)

200 (0–500)

  

Ages 45–54

3.4 % (1.9–4.6 %)

30 (20–50)

900 (500–1400)

  

Ages 55–64

2.9 % (1.4–4.2 %)

90 (60–140)

1700 (1100–2700)

  

Ages 65–74

2.1 % (0.7–3.5 %)

120 (80–190)

1900 (1300–2700)

 

IMDQ5

Ages 35–44

4.2 % (2.3–5.8 %)

10 (0–30)

500 (0–1000)

  

Ages 45–54

4.6 % (2.6–6.3 %)

60 (40–100)

1600 (900–2700)

  

Ages 55–64

4.1 % (2.0–5.8 %)

130 (80–220)

2500 (1400–4200)

  

Ages 65–74

3.2 % (1.2–4.9 %)

170 (100–290)

2600 (1700–3600)

  1. Stratified by age group, sex, and quintiles of Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMDQ, 1 = least deprived, 5 = most deprived). 95 % confidence intervals from probabilistic sensitivity analysis