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Table 2 Smoking prevalence at baseline (2012 ONS data) and with all Tobacco Control Scale policies maximised

From: The effects of maximising the UK’s tobacco control score on inequalities in smoking prevalence and premature coronary heart disease mortality: a modelling study

IMDQ

Sex

Smoking prevalence

   

Premature CHD deaths

Life years gained

  

Baseline

With policies

95 % CI

Relative Reduction

95 % CI

Baseline

Reduction

95 % CI

 

95 % CI

1

Men

13.1 %

11.8 %

(10.4–12.4 %)

10 %

(6–20 %)

16100

180

(130–280)

2800

(2000–4300)

2

Men

16.7 %

14.7 %

(13.3–15.5 %)

12 %

(7–20 %)

20900

290

(210–390)

4500

(3300–6100)

3

Men

21.1 %

18.2 %

(16.9–19.5 %)

14 %

(7–20 %)

25300

440

(310–620)

6700

(4800–9500)

4

Men

25.6 %

21.8 %

(20.3–23.5 %)

15 %

(8–20 %)

28700

630

(440–900)

9300

(6600–13300)

5

Men

34.3 %

27.9 %

(27.0–31.8 %)

19 %

(7–21 %)

32600

900

(610–1220)

12800

(8800–17200)

1

Women

10.2 %

9.2 %

(8.1–9.6 %)

10 %

(6–20 %)

4100

50

(30–80)

900

(600–1400)

2

Women

13.5 %

11.9 %

(10.8–12.6 %)

12 %

(7–20 %)

5300

80

(60–110)

1400

(1000–2000)

3

Women

17.0 %

14.6 %

(13.6–15.7 %)

14 %

(7–20 %)

6900

130

(80–190)

2300

(1500–3500)

4

Women

21.4 %

18.2 %

(17.0–19.7 %)

15 %

(8–20 %)

10300

250

(150–400)

4300

(2700–7100)

5

Women

28.3 %

23.0 %

(22.2–26.2 %)

19 %

(7–21 %)

12500

370

(210–680)

6500

(3700–11900)

  1. Premature (ages 35–74) coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and reduction with policies implemented, aggregate on 2015–2025. Calculations are described in Additional file 1. 95 % confidence intervals (CI) from probabilistic sensitivity analysis of key parameters. Results stratified by sex and quintile groups of Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMDQ, 1 = least deprived, 5 = most deprived)