Projected economic evaluation of the national implementation of a hypothetical HIV vaccination program among adolescents in South Africa, 2012

Table 3 Disease transition probabilities showing annual progression risk. The possibility of transition from one HIV health state to the next is described. The estimates were obtained from relevant South African literature for the year 2012

Parameter	Distribution	Estimate	Reference
Change in HIV disease state
Asymptomatic to symptomatic	Beta	0.32	[54]
Symptomatic to AIDS	Beta	0.20	[55]
AIDS to death	Beta	0.21	[54]
Change in drug regimens
First-line to second-line	Beta	0.10	[55]
Second-line to third-line	Beta	0.01	[56]

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