Fig. 9

Local sensitivity of outcomes to probability of recovery. The results of simulations with a population behaving according to Model A, with epidemic and spatial parameters as in the experiments, except that q is varied in a narrow range [015,0.25] around the experimental value (q = 0.20, indicated by a vertical line in the figures). Each black point represents the mean of 100 replicates, with error bars representing ± one standard deviation. a shows the attack rate. b shows the peak attack rate. c shows the duration. d shows the overall level of social contact during 1000 time steps. It is assumed that all individuals resume full social contact once the epidemic is over