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Table 5 The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for five diseases indicators in seven areas

From: Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan

 

Taipei area

Northern area

Central area

Southern area

Kaohsiung-Pingtung area

Eastern area

Nationwide area

All events

Target week

All events

Target week

All events

Target week

All events

Target week

All events

Target week

All events

Target week

All events

Target week

Indicator 1

71.4 %

67.7 %

65.2 %

71.0 %

56.8 %

54.8 %

60.4 %

67.7 %

62.6 %

67.7 %

63.4 %

67.7 %

81.5 %

90.3 %

Indicator 2

40.5 %

35.5 %

61.7 %

64.5 %

38.8 %

45.2 %

54.2 %

54.8 %

41.9 %

54.8 %

26.0 %

22.6 %

39.6 %

32.3 %

Indicator 3

24.2 %

48.4 %

25.1 %

35.5 %

40.1 %

54.8 %

36.1 %

54.8 %

22.0 %

64.5 %

9.3 %

12.9 %

58.6 %

74.2 %

Indicator 4

89.4 %

93.5 %

72.7 %

96.8 %

71.4 %

90.3 %

68.3 %

71.0 %

52.9 %

74.2 %

50.7 %

67.7 %

78.4 %

93.5 %

Indicator 5

67.4 %

80.6 %

71.8 %

80.6 %

68.7 %

74.2 %

40.1 %

58.1 %

44.9 %

71.0 %

61.7 %

87.1 %

73.1 %

80.6 %

Average

58.6 %

65.2 %

59.3 %

69.7 %

55.2 %

63.9 %

51.8 %

61.3 %

44.8 %

66.5 %

42.2 %

51.6 %

66.3 %

74.2 %

  1. Note: Indicator 1: confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case
  2. Indicator 2: confirmed cases of dengue fever
  3. Indicator 3: confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection
  4. Indicator 4: rate of enterovirus infection
  5. Indicator 5: rate of influenza-like illness