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Table 5 The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for five diseases indicators in seven areas

From: Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan

  Taipei area Northern area Central area Southern area Kaohsiung-Pingtung area Eastern area Nationwide area
All events Target week All events Target week All events Target week All events Target week All events Target week All events Target week All events Target week
Indicator 1 71.4 % 67.7 % 65.2 % 71.0 % 56.8 % 54.8 % 60.4 % 67.7 % 62.6 % 67.7 % 63.4 % 67.7 % 81.5 % 90.3 %
Indicator 2 40.5 % 35.5 % 61.7 % 64.5 % 38.8 % 45.2 % 54.2 % 54.8 % 41.9 % 54.8 % 26.0 % 22.6 % 39.6 % 32.3 %
Indicator 3 24.2 % 48.4 % 25.1 % 35.5 % 40.1 % 54.8 % 36.1 % 54.8 % 22.0 % 64.5 % 9.3 % 12.9 % 58.6 % 74.2 %
Indicator 4 89.4 % 93.5 % 72.7 % 96.8 % 71.4 % 90.3 % 68.3 % 71.0 % 52.9 % 74.2 % 50.7 % 67.7 % 78.4 % 93.5 %
Indicator 5 67.4 % 80.6 % 71.8 % 80.6 % 68.7 % 74.2 % 40.1 % 58.1 % 44.9 % 71.0 % 61.7 % 87.1 % 73.1 % 80.6 %
Average 58.6 % 65.2 % 59.3 % 69.7 % 55.2 % 63.9 % 51.8 % 61.3 % 44.8 % 66.5 % 42.2 % 51.6 % 66.3 % 74.2 %
  1. Note: Indicator 1: confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case
  2. Indicator 2: confirmed cases of dengue fever
  3. Indicator 3: confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection
  4. Indicator 4: rate of enterovirus infection
  5. Indicator 5: rate of influenza-like illness