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Table 2 Uncertain and Severe Scenarios of Pandemic Influenza used in the research

From: Public preferences for vaccination and antiviral medicines under different pandemic flu outbreak scenarios

Uncertain Scenario Severe scenario
The [pandemic] flu virus has not yet reached the area where you live but it is now spreading to the UK. In other countries hundreds of people are infected - some people do not have any symptoms but 15 have died. Flu virus has spread to where you live, 1 in 2 of those coming into close contact with an infected person catch flu.
Scientists do no yet know how badly the flu virus will affect people in the UK - doctors are trying to learn about the virus as fast as they can, but do not know if it will be mild or serious. Most people who catch flu feel very ill for around a week. Almost 1 in every 10 people who catch flu need hospital care, and 1 in every 50 healthy people who catch flu die.
When the virus reaches the UK, we don’t know whether life will carry on much as usual or whether there will be serious problems with services such as the NHS, schools or vital supplies. Life cannot continue as usual. Most schools close, there is very high sickness absence at work and so there are problems with essential supplies, and health care services are not coping and have to be prioritised for the most seriously ill.