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Table 7 Total projected TB related outcomes per 1,000 population, in Mozambique over 20 years

From: Modeling the impact of tuberculosis interventions on epidemiologic outcomes and health system costs

Interventions

Specific parameter change1

Primary active cases arising in cohort over 20 years3

Total projected outcomes related to the primary cases

 

Parameter

Pre

Post

Death during diagnosis and treatment phase

Cure due to treatment

Secondary cases generated from primary cases

Health system cost

Baseline

-

-

-

69.82

47.34

2.40

106.05

$2,818.01

Community Education

Patient delay2

11%

6%

69.82

45.97

2.51

104.24

$2,955.56

DOTS expansion for diagnosis

Incorrect Diagnostic Test

60%

35%

69.82

39.57

3.92

94.82

$4,075.36

Diagnostic Delay2

8%

0.5%

69.82

46.29

2.54

104.44

$2,942.14

Loss to follow up during diagnosis

25%

14%

69.82

45.47

2.76

103.35

$3,121.12

DOTS Expansion for Treatment

Incorrect Treatment

79%

13%

69.82

47.34

10.00

99.21

$2,920.66

Non specific DOTS Expansion (NTP Strengthening)

Access Government Facility

94.5%

97.5%

69.82

46.96

2.47

105.50

$2,906.57

HIV/ ART therapy programmes

HIV/TB Death rate

12%

10%

69.82

47.34

2.45

106.05

$2,818.01

HIV/TB Relapse rate

16%

1%

69.82

47.34

2.70

105.93

$2,818.01

HIV/TB Reactivation rate

3.4%

2%

57.11

39.55

2.01

86.58

$2,326.66

MDR-TB related interventions

DST performed

20%

50%

69.82

47.34

2.41

106.02

$2,986.38

Loss to follow up during MDR Treatment

22%

11%

69.82

47.34

2.40

106.05

$2,819.07

  1. Notes: 1See Table 1 for more detail; 2Delay = % with 1 year delay; 3Primary cases are those which would arise from reactivation of pre-existing latent TB infection, or progression from newly acquired infection, but do NOT include cases arising from transmission from the primary cases.
  2. (Change in estimate shown represents change relative to baseline for a change in only one parameter and all others remain at pre-intervention values).