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Table 5 Changes in projected TB related outcomes relative to baseline of no intervention per 1,000 general population, in Kazakhstan over 20 years

From: Modeling the impact of tuberculosis interventions on epidemiologic outcomes and health system costs

General intervention

Specific parameter changed1

Projected changes in outcomes related to the primary active cases and Ranking of impact3

 

Parameter

Pre-intervention

Post-intervention

Death during diagnosis and treatment phase

Cure due to treatment

Secondary cases generated from primary cases

Health system costs

Change in outcome

Rank of impact

Change in outcome

Rank of impact

Change in outcome

Rank of impact

Change in outcome

Rank of impact

Baseline outcomes

-

-

-

10 · 05

 

0 · 62

 

22 · 99

 

$5,238 · 87

 

Community Education

Patient delay2

11%

6%

−0 · 14

3

0 · 01

5

−0 · 26

5

111 · 34

3

DOTS expansion for diagnosis

Incorrect Diagnostic Test

60%

35%

−1 · 88

1

0 · 40

2

−2 · 47

1

2947 · 81

9

Diagnostic Delay2

8%

0 · 5%

−0 · 11

4

0 · 02

4

−0 · 27

4

132 · 69

4

Loss to follow up during Diagnosis

25%

14%

−0 · 45

2

0 · 10

3

−0 · 60

3

710 · 63

8

DOTS Expansion for Treatment

Incorrect Treatment

79%

13%

0 · 00

6

1 · 98

1

−1 · 54

2

363 · 20

7

Non specific DOTS Expansion (NTP Strengthening)

Access Government Facility

94 · 5%

97 · 5%

−0 · 09

5

0 · 02

4

−0 · 12

6

164 · 65

5

HIV/ ART therapy programmes

HIV/TB Death rate

12%

10%

0 · 00

6

0 · 00

6

0 · 00

8

0 · 00

2

HIV/TB Relapse rate

16%

1%

0 · 00

6

0 · 00

6

0 · 00

8

0 · 00

2

HIV/TB Reactivation rate

3 · 4%

2%

0 · 00

7

0 · 01

5

0 · 05

9

−142 · 43

1

MDR-TB related interventions

DST performed

20%

50%

0 · 00

6

0 · 02

4

−0 · 03

7

232 · 19

6

Loss to follow up during MDR Treatment

22%

11%

0 · 00

6

0 · 00

6

0 · 00

8

10 · 11

3

  1. Notes: 1See Table 1 for more detail; 2Delay = % with 1 year delay; 3Rank of Impact ranks the projected impact of each intervention on each outcome, relative to the baseline of no intervention.
  2. (Change in estimate shown represents change relative to baseline for a change in only one parameter and all others remain at pre-intervention values).