Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on dengue epidemics in Thailand, 1996-2005

Table 6 Effects of global ENSO cycles on the monthly incidence of dengue cases

Model*	R²
Southern tropical coastal region
Global index model	0.15
Local climate model	0.29
Combined model	0.33
North inland mountainous region
Global index model	0.22
Local climate model	0.57
Combined model	0.69

*see Appendix for details. Global index model, model with multivariate ENSO index (MEI) lagged 1-6 months; Local climate model, model with local temperature lagged 1-3 months and relative humidity lagged 3-6 months; Combined model, model with both MEI and local temperature/relative humidity.