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Table 4 Correlation between ENSO indicators and the monthly incidence of dengue cases over time lags from 1 to 12 months - local climate parameters are also shown for comparison.

From: Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on dengue epidemics in Thailand, 1996-2005

Region/Time-lag (months)

ENSO indices

Local climate parameters

 

MEI

SLP

Tmax

Tmean

Tmin

Rh

WDSP

In the five southern coastal provinces

Lag 1

0.29*

-0.05*

0.14*

0.20*

0.13*

NS

NS

Lag 2

0.36*

-0.07*

0.17*

0.21*

0.11*

NS

NS

Lag 3

0.41*

-0.10*

0.19*

0.22*

0.09*

-0.05*

NS

Lag 4

0.42*

-0.13*

0.18*

0.21*

0.07*

-0.07*

NS

Lag 5

0.41*

-0.15*

0.15*

0.18*

0.06*

-0.06*

NS

Lag 6

0.38*

-0.17*

0.11*

0.16*

0.08*

-0.04*

NS

Lag 7

0.34*

-0.16*

0.07*

0.13*

0.09*

NS

NS

Lag 8

0.29*

-0.13*

NS

0.07*

0.07*

NS

NS

Lag 9

0.26*

-0.11*

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

Lag 10

0.22*

-0.09*

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

Lag 11

0.18*

-0.06*

-0.05*

-0.07*

NS

NS

NS

Lag 12

0.13*

NS

-0.06*

-0.10*

-0.06*

0.03*

NS

In the eight northern mountainous provinces

Lag 1

0.58*

-0.19*

0.09*

0.09*

0.08*

NS

NS

Lag 2

0.61*

-0.22*

0.09*

0.11*

0.09*

-0.02*

NS

Lag 3

0.61*

-0.25*

0.10*

0.09*

0.06*

-0.04*

NS

Lag 4

0.57*

-0.23*

0.07*

0.04*

NS

-0.04*

NS

Lag 5

0.55*

-0.22*

0.04*

NS

-0.03*

-0.03*

-0.09*

Lag 6

0.53*

-0.21*

NS

NS

-0.04*

-0.03*

-0.13*

Lag 7

0.52*

-0.20*

0.05*

NS

NS

-0.04*

-0.13*

Lag 8

0.49*

-0.18*

0.04*

NS

NS

-0.03*

NS

Lag 9

0.46*

-0.18*

NS

NS

NS

-0.02*

NS

Lag 10

0.40*

-0.16*

0.01*

NS

NS

NS

NS

Lag 11

0.33*

-0.12*

NS

NS

NS

NS

NS

Lag 12

0.25*

-0.17*

NS

NS

NS

-0.40*

0.09*

  1. NOTE. Data shown are the Poisson regression coefficients (using quasi-likelihood estimation with the variance function = μ^2) of a lagged variable after adjusting for effects of seasonality, population density, and province.
  2. *Statistically significant; NS, not significant.
  3. Abbreviation: MEI, Multivariate ENSO index (monthly average); SLP, sea level pressure index (monthly average); Tmax, maximum daily temperature (monthly average); Tmin, minimum daily temperature (monthly average); Tmean, mean daily temperature (monthly average); Rh, relative humidity (monthly average); WDSP, wind speed (monthly average).