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Table 3 Threshold analysis

From: Are youth mentoring programs good value-for-money? An evaluation of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Melbourne Program

   Undiscounted benefits Discounted benefits
Reduction in prevalence Number of cases averteda Potential cost savingsb Net benefits (costs, AUD)c Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, AUD)d Potential cost savingsb Net benefits (costs, AUD)c Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, AUD)d
10.0% 110 $330,000,000 $290,500,000 -$2,640,909 $212,740,000 $173,240,000 -$1,574,909
6.0% 66 $198,000,000 $158,500,000 -$2,401,515 $127,644,000 $88,144,000 -$1,335,515
5.0% 55 $165,000,000 $125,500,000 -$2,281,818 $106,370,000 $66,870,000 -$1,215,818
4.0% 44 $132,000,000 $92,500,000 -$2,102,273 $85,096,000 $45,596,000 -$1,036,273
3.0% 33 $99,000,000 $59,500,000 -$1,803,030 $63,822,000 $24,322,000 -$737,030
2.0% 22 $66,000,000 $26,500,000 -$1,204,545 $42,548,000 $3,048,000 -$138,545
1.8% 20 $60,000,000 $20,500,000 -$1,025,000 $38,680,000 -$820,000 $41,000
1.6% 18 $54,000,000 $14,500,000 -$805,556 $34,812,000 -$4,688,000 $260,444
1.4% 15 $45,000,000 $5,500,000 -$366,667 $29,010,000 -$10,490,000 $699,333
1.2% 13 $39,000,000 -$500,000 $38,462 $25,142,000 -$14,358,000 $1,104,462
1.0% 11 $33,000,000 -$6,500,000 $590,909 $21,274,000 -$18,226,000 $1,656,909
  1. a Refers to the number of cases averted as a result of the program. The total number of children in the program considered to be 'high-risk' cases is 1,104.
  2. b Refers to the lifetime costs of high-risk youth averted by reducing the prevalence. Savings equate to the number of cases averted × AUD 3 M (undiscounted) ($1.934 M discounted) per case
  3. cNet benefit is derived by subtracting the costs of the BBBS-M program (AUD 39.5 M) for the cohort from the potential cost savings. A positive number means that the program saves more resources than what it costs, and conversely, a negative number means that the program costs more than what it saves.
  4. dThe ICER is determined by dividing the net benefits of the program by the numbers of cases of high-risk youth averted. A negative ratio denotes that the program is a dominant intervention in that it saves money and has extra benefits (defined as cases averted).