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Table 2 Undiscounted lifetime risk-reduction in burden of disease for bases case analyses, by duration of vaccine protection

From: A cost-utility analysis of cervical cancer vaccination in preadolescent Canadian females

  No herd immunity With herd immunity
  HPV 16/18 HPV 16/18 + cross-protection HPV 16/18 HPV 16/18 + cross-protection
Cancer Cases     
No. cases no vaccination 822 822 822 822
No. cases with vaccination 432 365 369 189
No. cases prevented 390 457 453 633
% reduction 47.4% 55.6% 55.1% 77.0%
vaccine duration = 30 y 22.3% 26.2% 34.0% 61.6%
vaccine duration = 10 y 9.0% 9.0% 21.1% 51.8%
Cancer Deaths     
No. deaths no vaccination 351 351 351 351
No. deaths with vaccination 183 155 150 76
No. deaths prevented 168 196 201 275
% reduction 47.9% 55.8% 57.3% 78.3%
vaccine duration = 30 y 12.8% 15.1% 29.1% 57.7%
vaccine duration = 10 y 4.0% 4.0% 20.8% 51.4%
  1. 75% vaccination coverage.
  2. Vaccine duration of protection: assumes initial vaccination efficacy lasts to 10 years, then wanes linearly over a 5 year period until 0% efficacy at year 16. 30 year scenario: efficacy lasts to 30 years, then wanes linearly for 5 year period until 0% efficacy at year 36.