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Table 2 Undiscounted lifetime risk-reduction in burden of disease for bases case analyses, by duration of vaccine protection

From: A cost-utility analysis of cervical cancer vaccination in preadolescent Canadian females

 

No herd immunity

With herd immunity

 

HPV 16/18

HPV 16/18 + cross-protection

HPV 16/18

HPV 16/18 + cross-protection

Cancer Cases

    

No. cases no vaccination

822

822

822

822

No. cases with vaccination

432

365

369

189

No. cases prevented

390

457

453

633

% reduction

47.4%

55.6%

55.1%

77.0%

vaccine duration = 30 y

22.3%

26.2%

34.0%

61.6%

vaccine duration = 10 y

9.0%

9.0%

21.1%

51.8%

Cancer Deaths

    

No. deaths no vaccination

351

351

351

351

No. deaths with vaccination

183

155

150

76

No. deaths prevented

168

196

201

275

% reduction

47.9%

55.8%

57.3%

78.3%

vaccine duration = 30 y

12.8%

15.1%

29.1%

57.7%

vaccine duration = 10 y

4.0%

4.0%

20.8%

51.4%

  1. 75% vaccination coverage.
  2. Vaccine duration of protection: assumes initial vaccination efficacy lasts to 10 years, then wanes linearly over a 5 year period until 0% efficacy at year 16. 30 year scenario: efficacy lasts to 30 years, then wanes linearly for 5 year period until 0% efficacy at year 36.