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Table 2 Incidence rate and risk of Type 2 diabetes stratified by different risk factors.

From: Population-based incidence of Type 2 diabetes and its associated risk factors: results from a six-year cohort study in Iran

Risk factors Number Incident diabetes Cumulative incidence (%, 95% CI) Odds ratio (95% CI) * P
Sex      0.04
   Males 1386 91 6.6 (5.3–8.0) 1  
   Females 1921 146 7.6 (6.4–8.8) 1.3 (1.0–1.7)  
   All 3307 237 7.2 (6.3–8.1)   
Age (years)      <0.001
   20–34 1108 37 3.1 (2.4–4.6) 1  
   35–49 1210 88 7.3‡ (5.9–8.9) 2.4 (1.6–3.6)  
   50–64 711 86 12.1†(9.8–14.7) 4.3 (2.9–6.3)  
   ≥ 65 206 26 12.6 (8.4–17.9) 4.5 (2.6–7.5)  
Family history of diabetes      <0.001
   No 2335 129 5.6 (4.6–6.5) 1  
   Yes 882 99 11.2‡ (9.2–13.5) 2.4 (1.8–3.2)  
History of CVD      0.3
   No 3119 215 6.9 (6.0–7.8) 1  
   Yes 113 16 14.2† (8.3–22.0) 1.3 (0.7–2.3)  
Smoking      0.7
   Never 2650 189 7.1 (6.2–8.23) 1  
   Current 361 30 7.2 (5.7–11.7) 1.0 (0.7–1.6)  
   Past 193 18 7.3 (5.6–14.3) 0.7 (0.4–1.2)  
Education      0.001
   Illiterate/primary school 972 119 12.2 (10.2–14.5) 1  
   Secondary school 593 41 6.9‡ (5.0–9.3) 0.8 (0.5–1.2)  
   Diploma and higher 1740 77 4.4† (3.5–5.5) 0.5 (0.4–0.8)  
Hypertension      <0.001
   No 2657 147 5.5 (4.7–6.5) 1  
   Yes 631 88 14.0‡ (11.3–16.9) 1.9 (1.4–2.6)  
Obesity      <0.001
   Normal weight 1190 41 3.5 (2.5–4.6) 1  
   Overweight 1346 86 6.4‡ (5.1–7.8) 1.7 (1.1–2.5)  
   Obese 771 110 14.3‡ (11.9–16.9) 4.0 (2.7–5.8)  
Abdominal obesity      0.001
   No 2225 98 4.4 (3.6–5.3) 1  
   Yes 1038 135 13.0‡ (11.0–15.2) 1.4 (1.3–1.5)  
High Triglyceride      <0.001
   No 2449 136 5.6 (4.7–6.5) 1  
   Yes 858 101 11.8‡ (9.7–14.1) 2.0 (1.5–2.6)  
Low HDL-cholesterol      0.04
   No 1001 61 6.1 (4.7–7.8) 1  
   Yes 2306 176 7.6‡ (6.6–8.8) 1.4 (1.0–1.9)  
Glucose tolerance category      
Normal 3216 94 2.9 (2.4–3.6) 1 <0.001
Isolated IFG 60 12 20.0 (10.8–32.3) ‡ 8.3 (4.2–16.5)  
Isolated IGT 442 85 19.2 (15.7–23.2) 7.1 (5.1–9.8)  
IFG/IGT 77 46 59.7 (47.9–70.8) ‡ 42.2 (25.8–75.7)  
  1. *Cumulative incidences were compared by Chi-squared test. Odds ratios were calculated by logistic regression analysis after controlling for age. For categorical variables with more than 2 values, the first category was considered as the reference and the p-value is for linear trend in risk.
  2. Obesity: BMI<25 (normal), 25–29.9 (overweight) and ≥ 30 kg/m2 (obese), Abdominal obesity: waist circumference>88 or >102 cm in females and males respectively, Hypertension: Blood pressure ≥ 140/90 and/or taking of antihypertensive medication, High TG:Triglyderide>2.2 mmol/l, Low HDL: HDL-cholesterol <1.0 or <1.3 mmol/l in males and females respectively, Isolated IFG: FPG 6.1–6.9 and 2 hPG<7.8 mmol/l, Isolated IGT:FPG<6.1 and 2-hours plasma glucose 7.8–11 mmol/l, IFG/IGT: FPG 6.1–6.9 and 2 hPG 7.8–11 mmol/l.
  3. † and ‡ represent P < 0.05 and P < 0.001 in comparison to the preceding category.