|
Decades
|
Sensitivity Analysis
|
Coronary Heart
Disease Events
|
Coronary Heart
Disease Deaths
|
Non-coronary Deaths
|
|---|
| | |
Incremental difference
|
%Change
|
Incremental difference
|
%Change
|
Incremental difference
|
%Change
|
|---|
|
2000–2029
|
More liberal ICD definition of CHD*
| | | | | | |
| |
Total
|
9,973,000
|
20.8
|
3,561,000
|
17.4
|
-3,270,000
|
-1.2
|
| |
Men
|
7,452,000
|
24.8
|
2,616,000
|
21.3
|
-2,605,000
|
-1.6
|
| |
Women
|
2,521,000
|
14.1
|
945,000
|
11.5
|
-665,000
|
-0.6
|
|
2000–2029
|
Higher proportion of deaths due to CHD, Global Burden of Disease Study, 2002[36]
| | | | | | |
| |
Total
|
10,788,000
|
22.5
|
4,732,000
|
23.1
|
-4,683,000
|
-1.7
|
| |
Men
|
2,267,000
|
7.5
|
657,000
|
5.4
|
-723,000
|
-0.4
|
| |
Women
|
8,521,000
|
47.5
|
4,074,000
|
49.6
|
-3,960,000
|
-3.4
|
|
2000–2029
|
Higher CHD case-fatality rate†
| | | | | | |
| |
Total
|
-3,031,243
|
-6.3
|
4,709,000
|
23.0
|
-1,075,000
|
-0.4
|
| |
Men
|
-1,787,000
|
-5.9
|
2,978,000
|
24.2
|
-762,000
|
-0.5
|
| |
Women
|
-1,244,000
|
-6.9
|
1,730,000
|
21.1
|
-313,000
|
-0.3
|
|
2000–2029
|
Lower CHD case-fatality rate‡
| | | | | | |
| |
Total
|
324,000
|
1.5
|
-3,992,000
|
-19.5
|
814,000
|
<0.01
|
| |
Men
|
447,000
|
0.7
|
-2,289,000
|
-18.7
|
515,000
|
<0.01
|
| |
Women
|
-123,000
|
-0.7
|
-1,704,000
|
-20.8
|
299,000
|
<0.01
|
- Incremental differences in predicted CHD events and non-CHD deaths compared with the main simulation in Chinese adults 35–84 years old over the years 2000–2029, under alternate mortality assumptions
-
* CHD defined as myocardial infarction (ICD-9 410, 412 or ICD-10 I21, I22), angina and other CHD (ICD-9 411, 413 and 414, or IC-10 I20, I23–I25), and a fixed proportion of "ill-defined" cardiovascular disease coded events and deaths.[33] (ICD-9 codes 427.1, 427.4, 427.5, 428, 429.0, 429.1, 429.2, 429.9, 440.9 or ICD-10 I47.2, I49.0, I46, I50, I51.4, I51.5, I51.9, and I70.9). The liberal coding method used the same ICD codes described above, but assumed that a higher proportion of CHD deaths were mis-coded into the "ill-defined" cardiovascular codes, so more deaths assigned these ill-defined codes are counted as CHD deaths.[33]
- †Higher case-fatality rates assumed for China in 2000 by the Global Burden of Disease Study – age trended, overall 62% for men and 72% for women.[34]
- ‡Lower case-fatality rates observed in the Sino-MONICA Beijing population over 1999–2004 averaged for age 25–74 years – age trended, overall 40% for men and 49% for women (Personal communication, Dong Zhao, M.D., Ph.D., April, 2008)
