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Table 7 Sensitivity analyses

From: The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

Decades Sensitivity Analysis Coronary Heart
Disease Events
Coronary Heart
Disease Deaths
Non-coronary Deaths
   Incremental difference %Change Incremental difference %Change Incremental difference %Change
2000–2029 More liberal ICD definition of CHD*       
  Total 9,973,000 20.8 3,561,000 17.4 -3,270,000 -1.2
  Men 7,452,000 24.8 2,616,000 21.3 -2,605,000 -1.6
  Women 2,521,000 14.1 945,000 11.5 -665,000 -0.6
2000–2029 Higher proportion of deaths due to CHD, Global Burden of Disease Study, 2002[36]       
  Total 10,788,000 22.5 4,732,000 23.1 -4,683,000 -1.7
  Men 2,267,000 7.5 657,000 5.4 -723,000 -0.4
  Women 8,521,000 47.5 4,074,000 49.6 -3,960,000 -3.4
2000–2029 Higher CHD case-fatality rate†       
  Total -3,031,243 -6.3 4,709,000 23.0 -1,075,000 -0.4
  Men -1,787,000 -5.9 2,978,000 24.2 -762,000 -0.5
  Women -1,244,000 -6.9 1,730,000 21.1 -313,000 -0.3
2000–2029 Lower CHD case-fatality rate‡       
  Total 324,000 1.5 -3,992,000 -19.5 814,000 <0.01
  Men 447,000 0.7 -2,289,000 -18.7 515,000 <0.01
  Women -123,000 -0.7 -1,704,000 -20.8 299,000 <0.01
  1. Incremental differences in predicted CHD events and non-CHD deaths compared with the main simulation in Chinese adults 35–84 years old over the years 2000–2029, under alternate mortality assumptions
  2. * CHD defined as myocardial infarction (ICD-9 410, 412 or ICD-10 I21, I22), angina and other CHD (ICD-9 411, 413 and 414, or IC-10 I20, I23–I25), and a fixed proportion of "ill-defined" cardiovascular disease coded events and deaths.[33] (ICD-9 codes 427.1, 427.4, 427.5, 428, 429.0, 429.1, 429.2, 429.9, 440.9 or ICD-10 I47.2, I49.0, I46, I50, I51.4, I51.5, I51.9, and I70.9). The liberal coding method used the same ICD codes described above, but assumed that a higher proportion of CHD deaths were mis-coded into the "ill-defined" cardiovascular codes, so more deaths assigned these ill-defined codes are counted as CHD deaths.[33]
  3. †Higher case-fatality rates assumed for China in 2000 by the Global Burden of Disease Study – age trended, overall 62% for men and 72% for women.[34]
  4. ‡Lower case-fatality rates observed in the Sino-MONICA Beijing population over 1999–2004 averaged for age 25–74 years – age trended, overall 40% for men and 49% for women (Personal communication, Dong Zhao, M.D., Ph.D., April, 2008)