The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

Table 7 Sensitivity analyses

Decades	Sensitivity Analysis	Coronary Heart Disease Events		Coronary Heart Disease Deaths		Non-coronary Deaths
		Incremental difference	%Change	Incremental difference	%Change	Incremental difference	%Change
2000–2029	More liberal ICD definition of CHD*
	Total	9,973,000	20.8	3,561,000	17.4	-3,270,000	-1.2
	Men	7,452,000	24.8	2,616,000	21.3	-2,605,000	-1.6
	Women	2,521,000	14.1	945,000	11.5	-665,000	-0.6
2000–2029	Higher proportion of deaths due to CHD, Global Burden of Disease Study, 2002[36]
	Total	10,788,000	22.5	4,732,000	23.1	-4,683,000	-1.7
	Men	2,267,000	7.5	657,000	5.4	-723,000	-0.4
	Women	8,521,000	47.5	4,074,000	49.6	-3,960,000	-3.4
2000–2029	Higher CHD case-fatality rate†
	Total	-3,031,243	-6.3	4,709,000	23.0	-1,075,000	-0.4
	Men	-1,787,000	-5.9	2,978,000	24.2	-762,000	-0.5
	Women	-1,244,000	-6.9	1,730,000	21.1	-313,000	-0.3
2000–2029	Lower CHD case-fatality rate‡
	Total	324,000	1.5	-3,992,000	-19.5	814,000	<0.01
	Men	447,000	0.7	-2,289,000	-18.7	515,000	<0.01
	Women	-123,000	-0.7	-1,704,000	-20.8	299,000	<0.01

Incremental differences in predicted CHD events and non-CHD deaths compared with the main simulation in Chinese adults 35–84 years old over the years 2000–2029, under alternate mortality assumptions
* CHD defined as myocardial infarction (ICD-9 410, 412 or ICD-10 I21, I22), angina and other CHD (ICD-9 411, 413 and 414, or IC-10 I20, I23–I25), and a fixed proportion of "ill-defined" cardiovascular disease coded events and deaths.[33] (ICD-9 codes 427.1, 427.4, 427.5, 428, 429.0, 429.1, 429.2, 429.9, 440.9 or ICD-10 I47.2, I49.0, I46, I50, I51.4, I51.5, I51.9, and I70.9). The liberal coding method used the same ICD codes described above, but assumed that a higher proportion of CHD deaths were mis-coded into the "ill-defined" cardiovascular codes, so more deaths assigned these ill-defined codes are counted as CHD deaths.[33]
†Higher case-fatality rates assumed for China in 2000 by the Global Burden of Disease Study – age trended, overall 62% for men and 72% for women.[34]
‡Lower case-fatality rates observed in the Sino-MONICA Beijing population over 1999–2004 averaged for age 25–74 years – age trended, overall 40% for men and 49% for women (Personal communication, Dong Zhao, M.D., Ph.D., April, 2008)

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