Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of decline

Allender, Steven; Scarborough, Peter; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-148

Table 3 Coronary heart disease deaths, mortality rate, rate ratio and 95% confidence intervals for rate ratios by sex, age and year of death

From: Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20^th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of decline

Men	30–34	35–39	40–44	45–49	50–54	55–59	60–64	65–69
Deaths
1936–45	273	936	2561	5347	10076	15752	21094	23970
1946–55	810	2291	6376	13949	24001	34165	47520	57763
1956–65	1396	4783	10782	21895	41820	65473	83693	92738
1966–75	1576	4946	13834	29887	50471	77214	114210	141632
1976–85	1520	4524	10966	24027	46480	77437	109151	143514
1986–95	1051	3333	8248	16436	28719	49653	81613	119728
1996–2005	810	2332	5550	10987	19740	30404	45011	66886
Mortality rate per 100,000
1936–45	2	6	19	42	87	147	226	311
1946–55	5	14	38	86	163	289	492	736
1956–65	9	28	64	135	268	443	662	1040
1966–75	10	33	87	180	315	522	854	1251
1976–85	8	25	72	167	311	513	789	1257
1986–95	5	18	45	91	195	374	627	987
1996–2005	4	11	28	61	111	177	334	577
Rate ratio
1936–45	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
1946–55	2.9	2.3	2.0	2.0	1.9	2.0	2.2	2.4
1956–65	5.4	4.7	3.4	3.2	3.1	3.0	2.9	3.3
1966–75	6.2	5.5	4.6	4.3	3.6	3.6	3.8	4.0
1976–85	5.0	4.1	3.8	3.9	3.6	3.5	3.5	4.0
1986–95	3.2	3.0	2.4	2.1	2.2	2.5	2.8	3.2
1996–2005	2.4	1.9	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.2	1.5	1.9
95% CI rate ratio
1936–45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1946–55	(2.7, 3.1)	(2.2, 2.4)	(1.9, 2.0)	(2.0, 2.1)	(1.8, 1.9)	(1.9, 2.0)	(2.2, 2.2)	(2.3, 2.4)
1956–65	(5.1, 5.6)	(4.6, 4.8)	(3.3, 3.4)	(3.1, 3.2)	(3.1, 3.1)	(3.0, 3.0)	(2.9, 2.9)	(3.3, 3.4)
1966–75	(5.9, 6.5)	(5.4, 5.7)	(4.5, 4.7)	(4.2, 4.3)	(3.6, 3.7)	(3.5, 3.6)	(3.8, 3.8)	(4.0, 4.0)
1976–85	(4.8, 5.3)	(4.0, 4.2)	(3.7, 3.9)	(3.9, 4.0)	(3.5, 3.6)	(3.5, 3.5)	(3.5, 3.5)	(4.0, 4.1)
1986–95	(3.0, 3.4)	(2.9, 3.1)	(2.3, 2.4)	(2.1, 2.2)	(2.2, 2.3)	(2.5, 2.6)	(2.8, 2.8)	(3.2, 3.2)
1996–2005	(2.3, 2.6)	(1.8, 2.0)	(1.4, 1.5)	(1.4, 1.5)	(1.3, 1.3)	(1.2, 1.2)	(1.5, 1.5)	(1.8, 1.9)
Women	30–34	35–39	40–44	45–49	50–54	55–59	60–64	65–69
Deaths
1936–45	111	267	541	1199	2452	4733	8301	12243
1946–55	133	371	924	2351	4911	9884	19053	31573
1956–65	226	574	1542	3348	7360	15934	30830	50826
1966–75	275	762	2147	4666	9469	18883	39113	67127
1976–85	312	711	1753	3935	9260	20032	37935	65485
1986–95	247	575	1349	2730	5744	13102	29180	55030
1996–2005	190	518	1134	2275	4013	7619	14485	27489
Mortality rate per 100,000
1936–45	0.6	1.5	3.3	7.9	17.4	36.5	71.4	126.0
1946–55	0.8	2.1	5.4	14.1	31.2	69.8	152.1	291.8
1956–65	1.4	3.3	9.0	20.0	44.9	100.0	211.7	412.9
1966–75	1.8	5.2	13.4	27.4	56.9	118.4	258.0	481.4
1976–85	1.7	3.9	11.7	27.3	60.2	124.5	247.3	469.7
1986–95	1.2	3.1	7.3	15.0	38.8	95.2	205.2	384.7
1996–2005	0.9	2.5	5.5	12.5	22.3	43.3	102.7	222.0
Rate ratio
1936–45	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
1946–55	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.8	1.8	1.9	2.1	2.3
1956–65	2.2	2.1	2.7	2.5	2.6	2.7	3.0	3.3
1966–75	2.9	3.4	4.1	3.5	3.3	3.2	3.6	3.8
1976–85	2.7	2.5	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.4	3.5	3.7
1986–95	1.9	2.0	2.2	1.9	2.2	2.6	2.9	3.1
1996–2005	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.2	1.4	1.8
95% CI rate ratio
1936–45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1946–55	(1.0, 1.4)	(1.2, 1.5)	(1.5, 1.8)	(1.7, 1.9)	(1.7, 1.8)	(1.9, 2.0)	(2.1, 2.2)	(2.3, 2.3)
1956–65	(1.9, 2.5)	(2.0, 2.3)	(2.6, 2.9)	(2.5, 2.6)	(2.5, 2.6)	(2.7, 2.8)	(2.9, 3.0)	(3.2, 3.3)
1966–75	(2.6, 3.2)	(3.1, 3.6)	(3.9, 4.3)	(3.4, 3.6)	(3.2, 3.3)	(3.2, 3.3)	(3.6, 3.6)	(3.8, 3.9)
1976–85	(2.4, 3.0)	(2.3, 2.7)	(3.4, 3.7)	(3.4, 3.6)	(3.4, 3.5)	(3.4, 3.5)	(3.4, 3.5)	(3.7, 3.8)
1986–95	(1.7, 2.2)	(1.9, 2.2)	(2.1, 2.4)	(1.8, 2.0)	(2.2, 2.3)	(2.6, 2.7)	(2.8, 2.9)	(3.0, 3.1)
1996–2005	(1.3, 1.7)	(1.5, 1.8)	(1.6, 1.8)	(1.5, 1.6)	(1.2, 1.3)	(1.2, 1.2)	(1.4, 1.5)	(1.7, 1.8)

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