Table 3 Standardised regression coefficients of multi-linear regression model obtained from inputs and outputs of model uncertainty analysis.
Standardised regression coefficient | Outputs of the mathematical model (dependent variables) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Model input parameters (independent variables) | CSW HIV averted (%) | CSW HIV Prevalence (%) Difference | Client HIV averted (%) | Client HIV Prevalence (%) Difference |
Overall number of CSW at any point in time | -0.002 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.041 |
Proportion of CSW recently reached by intervention | 0.566†| 0.219†| 0.520†| 0.174†|
Proportion of CSW reached using STD services per month | 0.005 | -0.004 | 0.003 | 0.020 |
Average proportion of STDs treated effectively cured | 0.015 | -0.020 | 0.004 | -0.015 |
Proportion of unreached CSW reporting using condoms | Â | Â | Â | Â |
None of the time | 0.415 | 0.215 | 0.259 | 0.092 |
Some of the time | 0.245 | 0.096 | 0.107 | 0.036 |
All of the time | 0.109 | 0.037 | -0.029 | -0.046 |
Proportion of reached CSW reporting using condoms | Â | Â | Â | Â |
None of the time | -0.280 | 0.233 | -0.184 | 0.230 |
Some of the time | -0.258 | 0.655 | -0.032 | 0.618 |
All of the time | -0.084 | 0.832 | 0.149 | 0.724 |
Initial HIV prevalence of CSWs | -0.272†| 0.097 | -0.220†| 0.078 |
Average duration of STDs (months) | Â | Â | Â | Â |
CSWs | -0.049 | -0.365†| -0.139* | -0.227** |
Clients | -0.344†| -0.547†| -0.426†| -0.367†|
Average duration of initial high infectivity phase (months) | 0.129†| 0.157†| 0.154†| 0.092* |
Average time span (months) | Â | Â | Â | Â |
CSWs sell sex | -0.034 | -0.003 | -0.073** | -0.013 |
Clients buy sex | -0.068* | 0.115** | 0.036 | 0.122** |
Average no. of clients per month per CSW | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Unreached | 0.211** | 0.182 | 0.138* | 0.112 |
Reached | -0.242†| -0.153 | -0.145* | -0.091 |
Average number of CSW seen by one client per month | 0.012 | 0.442†| 0.084 | 0.773†|
Proportion of time condom used, corresponding to | Â | Â | Â | Â |
"None of the time" | -0.143†| -0.181†| -0.142†| -0.175†|
"Some of the time" | -0.029 | -0.069 | 0.024 | -0.045 |
"All of the time" | 0.392†| 0.179†| 0.275†| 0.142** |
HIV Transmission probability per sex act | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Male to Female | 0.353†| 0.692†| 0.482†| 0.211** |
Female to Male | 0.197†| 0.661†| 0.302†| 0.696†|
STD Transmission probability per sex act | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Male to Female | -0.129** | -0.271†| -0.180†| -0.136* |
Female to Male | -0.172†| -0.220†| -0.200†| -0.125* |
STD cofactor effect per sex act | 0.604†| 1.119†| 0.727†| 0.790†|
Multiplicative cofactor during high infectivity phase | 0.107†| 0.168†| 0.132†| 0.133** |
Proportion of time condom used that provides protection | 0.283†| 0.140** | 0.226†| 0.124* |