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Table 1 Steady state summary results from simulations comparing routine vaccination of 12-year-olds to no routine vaccination, under base case assumptions and for sensitivity analyses on coverage rates, low vaccine efficacy (doubling waning of vaccine effectiveness) and halving herd immunity

From: Invasive meningococcal disease epidemiology and control measures: a framework for evaluation

  No Vaccination Base case (71% coverage) 90% coverage 50% coverage Low Vaccine efficacy Low Herd Immunity
Total Cases 2,806.7 1,716.9 1,500.6 1,969.2 2,121.6 2,056.2
   Secondary Cases 45.5 15.5 14.1 18.0 19.0 20.4
   Serogroup A 8.7 2.3 1.76 2.4 4.4 3.31
   Serogroup B 839.6 843.4 836.9 837.4 823.5 843.2
   Serogroup C 748.5 281.7 194.8 387.1 461.1 437.1
   Serogroup Y 773.7 305.9 212.5 420.3 492.9 445.4
   Serogroup W-135 247.9 90.5 62.5 129.3 152.6 137.5
   Other Serogroups 188.3 193.11 192.1 192.7 187.2 189.6
Fatal Cases 375.0 186.4 147.7 233.8 268.1 250.1
Cases with Disability 471.4 281.6 243.39 325.9 355.4 340.8
Life Years Lost 14,151.1 7,616.0 6,352.7 9,143.0 10,112.8 9,640.9
QALYs Lost 16,852.1 9,626.2 8,234.8 11,287.5 12,281.4 11,834.9
Total Outbreaks 9.1 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.9
   Outbreak Cases 91.2 24.9 23.7 26.4 27.3 27.0
   Community Outbreaks 2.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
   Serogroup B 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
   Serogroup C 5.8 0.2 <0.1 0.57 0.57 0.64
   Serogroup Y 1.1 <0.1 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.1
   Other Serogroups 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Number Vaccinated 119,171 2,866,522 3,634,838 2,020,350 2,867,463 2,867,233
   During Outbreak 119,171 137 37 594 1,078 848
Cases Averted due to Routine Vaccination   -1,090 -1,306 -837 -685 -743
Death Averted due to Routine Vaccination   -189 -227 -141 -107 -123
Number Needed to Vaccinate to Avoid One Case   2,521 2,692 2,271 4,012 3,699
Number Needed to Vaccinate to Avoid One Death   14,536 15,488 13,484 25,685 22,342
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