Table 1 Steady state summary results from simulations comparing routine vaccination of 12-year-olds to no routine vaccination, under base case assumptions and for sensitivity analyses on coverage rates, low vaccine efficacy (doubling waning of vaccine effectiveness) and halving herd immunity
From: Invasive meningococcal disease epidemiology and control measures: a framework for evaluation
No Vaccination | Base case (71% coverage) | 90% coverage | 50% coverage | Low Vaccine efficacy | Low Herd Immunity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cases | 2,806.7 | 1,716.9 | 1,500.6 | 1,969.2 | 2,121.6 | 2,056.2 |
Secondary Cases | 45.5 | 15.5 | 14.1 | 18.0 | 19.0 | 20.4 |
Serogroup A | 8.7 | 2.3 | 1.76 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 3.31 |
Serogroup B | 839.6 | 843.4 | 836.9 | 837.4 | 823.5 | 843.2 |
Serogroup C | 748.5 | 281.7 | 194.8 | 387.1 | 461.1 | 437.1 |
Serogroup Y | 773.7 | 305.9 | 212.5 | 420.3 | 492.9 | 445.4 |
Serogroup W-135 | 247.9 | 90.5 | 62.5 | 129.3 | 152.6 | 137.5 |
Other Serogroups | 188.3 | 193.11 | 192.1 | 192.7 | 187.2 | 189.6 |
Fatal Cases | 375.0 | 186.4 | 147.7 | 233.8 | 268.1 | 250.1 |
Cases with Disability | 471.4 | 281.6 | 243.39 | 325.9 | 355.4 | 340.8 |
Life Years Lost | 14,151.1 | 7,616.0 | 6,352.7 | 9,143.0 | 10,112.8 | 9,640.9 |
QALYs Lost | 16,852.1 | 9,626.2 | 8,234.8 | 11,287.5 | 12,281.4 | 11,834.9 |
Total Outbreaks | 9.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
Outbreak Cases | 91.2 | 24.9 | 23.7 | 26.4 | 27.3 | 27.0 |
Community Outbreaks | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Serogroup B | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Serogroup C | 5.8 | 0.2 | <0.1 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
Serogroup Y | 1.1 | <0.1 | 0.0 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 |
Other Serogroups | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Number Vaccinated | 119,171 | 2,866,522 | 3,634,838 | 2,020,350 | 2,867,463 | 2,867,233 |
During Outbreak | 119,171 | 137 | 37 | 594 | 1,078 | 848 |
Cases Averted due to Routine Vaccination | -1,090 | -1,306 | -837 | -685 | -743 | |
Death Averted due to Routine Vaccination | -189 | -227 | -141 | -107 | -123 | |
Number Needed to Vaccinate to Avoid One Case | 2,521 | 2,692 | 2,271 | 4,012 | 3,699 | |
Number Needed to Vaccinate to Avoid One Death | 14,536 | 15,488 | 13,484 | 25,685 | 22,342 |