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Table 2 Predicted versus True 0.50 Quantiles using the 0.15 Quantile as a Predictor Variable.

From: Early prediction of median survival among a large AIDS surveillance cohort

  Data as of December 31, 1996 Data as of December 31, 2001
   Observed Quantiles     
Cohort n largest follow-up time (months) 0.15 (A) 0.50 (B) Predicted 0.50 Quantile† (C) largest follow-up time (months) "True" 0.15 Quantile§ (D) True 0.50 Quantile‡ (E) Difference (C – E)
831 140 167 2 12 16 227 2 12 4
832 154 164 2 11 16 224 1 11 5
833 204 161 1 10 13 221 1 10 3
834 205 158 1 10 13 218 1 11 2
841 277 155 2 10 16 215 1 10 6
842 315 152 1 9 13 212 1 11 2
843 397 149 2 12 16 209 1 11 5
844 418 146 2 10 16 206 1 9 7
851 531 143 1 10 13 203 1 10 3
852 624 140 1 10 13 200 1 10 3
853 718 137 1 11 13 197 1 10 3
854 689 134 1 11 13 194 1 10 3
861 876 131 1 10 13 191 1 10 3
862 955 128 1 10 13 188 1 10 3
863 1113 125 1 11 13 185 1 11 2
864 1110 122 1 14 13 182 1 15 -2
871 1316 119 1 15 13 179 1 14 -1
872 1474 116 1 16 13 176 1 15 -2
873 1484 113 1 17 13 173 2 17 -4
874 1425 110 2 17 16 170 2 17 -1
881 1649 107 2 18 16 167 2 18 -2
882 1658 104 2 19 16 164 3 19 -3
883 1759 101 2 18 16 161 2 18 -2
884 1693 98 1 18 13 158 1 18 -5
891 1930 95 2 19 16 155 2 18 -2
892 2187 92 2 20 16 152 2 19 -3
893 2047 89 3 20 18 149 3 21 -3
894 1997 86 2 19 16 146 2 18 -2
901 2265 83 2 21 16 143 3 22 -6
902 2243 80 3 21 18 140 4 22 -4
903 2285 77 3 19 18 137 3 20 -2
904 2139 74 3 20 18 134 3 20 -2
911 2611 71 5 21 23 131 5 22 1
912 2543 68 4 23 21 128 4 23 -2
913 2845 65 4 23 21 125 4 23 -2
914 2930 62 5 24 23 122 5 24 -1
921 3227 59 7 27 29 119 8 27 2
922 2920 56 7 28 29 116 7 28 1
923 2971 53 7 28 29 113 7 27 2
924 3061 50 7 30 29 110 7 29 0
931 3264 47 9 32 34 107 9 31 3
932 2903 44 8 32 31 104 8 32 -1
933 2788 41 9 * 34 101 9 32 2
934 2624 38 9 * 34 98 9 40 -6
941 2766 35 8 * 31 95 9 46 -15
942 2518 32 7 * 29 92 8 80 -51
943 2335 29 9 * 34 89 9 *  
944 2203 26 9 * 34 86 8 *  
951 2451 23 10 * 37 83 9 *  
952 2245 20 11 * 39 80 10 *  
953 1949 17 8 * 31 77 9 *  
954 1860 14 10 * 37 74 9 *  
961 1894 11 * * * 71 12 *  
962 1488 8 5 * 23 68 16 *  
963 1225 5 * * * 65 16 *  
964 475 2 * * * 62 9 *  
  1. * denotes that the observed quantile could not be estimated from the data.
  2. † The predicted 0.50 quantile is based on HARS data as of December 31, 1996.
  3. §The true 0.15 quantile is based on HARS data as of December 31, 2001.
  4. ‡ The true 0.50 quantile is based on HARS data as of December 31, 2001.