Skip to main content

Table 2 Probabilities of outcomes with different TB and HIV health states

From: Impact of DOTS expansion on tuberculosis related outcomes and costs in Haiti

PATHOGENETIC FACTOR BASE RANGE REFERENCE
Reactivation from latent TB infection    
   Present more than 2 years ("long-standing LTBI")*    
HIV uninfected 0.1%/year 0.1% – 0.2%/year [28;29]
HIV infected – asymptomatic 3.4%/year 3.4% – 8.7% [36;64;65]
HIV infected – AIDS 33%/year 33% – 67% [36]
   Within 2 years of new TB infection ("recent LTBI")    
HIV uninfected 5% 2% – 15% [24;66]
HIV infected – asymptomatic 33% 33% – 100% Extrapolated
HIV infected – AIDS 100% 50% – 100% [42;43;67–69]
   Within 2 years following re-infection    
HIV Uninfected 1%   [27;70]*
HIV infected 33% or 100%   Assumption
Outcomes of untreated smear positive TB    
   Mortality – 1 year, & 2 years 33%, & 50%   From [71]
   Spontaneous remission 25%   [72]
   Relapse after spontaneous remission 2.5%/year 1.3% – 2.5%/year [72;73]
Outcomes of treated smear positive TB    
   Relapse after cure (total over next 2 years) 3.0% 1.5% – 5% [74–78]
   Cure rate if default (SDR or drug sensitive) ** 62.4%   [31–34]
   Effect of drug sensitivity or treatment outcomes    
Relative risk of failure/if single drug resistant 2.0   [79]
Relative risk of failure/if multi-drug resistant 10.5   [79]
Relative risk of death/if single drug resistant 1.0   [79]
Relative risk of death/if multi-drug resistant 4.5   [79]
   If MDR – Probability of cure with treatment 48% 48%-73% [22;80]
- Probability of death with treatment 12% 12%-26% [22;80]
HIV Infected and TB    
   Average duration of HIV infection – Total 9.8 years 7.3–9.8 [35;81]
   - Time spent in HIV asymptomatic state 9.0 years   [35]
   Annual risk of progression of asymptomatic HIV to AIDS 7% 7%-9% [35;81]
   Annual risk of death from HIV: HIV asymptomatic state 4.6%   [35]
   Annual risk of death from HIV: AIDS 22%   [35]
   Effect of prior active TB on relative risk of death from HIV 2.2 (2.2 – 4.0) [3;40;41]
   Effect of HIV infection on relative risk of death during TB treatment (drug sensitive or single drug resistance) 2.25   [37–39;82]
   Relapse after successful TB treatment (cured) 3.1% 3.1% – 6.4% [83–85]
  1. * Assume that rate of reactivation more than two years after TB infection is the same whether it is after a first infection, or after re-infection.
  2. ** Transfer out considered equivalent to default [30]. Overall cure rate if default based on timing of default (from [31]), and cure rates from trials of very short course treatment [32–34].