Table 2 Probabilities of outcomes with different TB and HIV health states
From: Impact of DOTS expansion on tuberculosis related outcomes and costs in Haiti
PATHOGENETIC FACTOR | BASE | RANGE | REFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|
Reactivation from latent TB infection | Â | Â | Â |
   Present more than 2 years ("long-standing LTBI")* |  |  |  |
HIV uninfected | 0.1%/year | 0.1% – 0.2%/year | [28;29] |
HIV infected – asymptomatic | 3.4%/year | 3.4% – 8.7% | [36;64;65] |
HIV infected – AIDS | 33%/year | 33% – 67% | [36] |
   Within 2 years of new TB infection ("recent LTBI") |  |  |  |
HIV uninfected | 5% | 2% – 15% | [24;66] |
HIV infected – asymptomatic | 33% | 33% – 100% | Extrapolated |
HIV infected – AIDS | 100% | 50% – 100% | [42;43;67–69] |
   Within 2 years following re-infection |  |  |  |
HIV Uninfected | 1% | Â | [27;70]* |
HIV infected | 33% or 100% | Â | Assumption |
Outcomes of untreated smear positive TB | Â | Â | Â |
   Mortality – 1 year, & 2 years | 33%, & 50% |  | From [71] |
   Spontaneous remission | 25% |  | [72] |
   Relapse after spontaneous remission | 2.5%/year | 1.3% – 2.5%/year | [72;73] |
Outcomes of treated smear positive TB | Â | Â | Â |
   Relapse after cure (total over next 2 years) | 3.0% | 1.5% – 5% | [74–78] |
   Cure rate if default (SDR or drug sensitive) ** | 62.4% |  | [31–34] |
   Effect of drug sensitivity or treatment outcomes |  |  |  |
Relative risk of failure/if single drug resistant | 2.0 | Â | [79] |
Relative risk of failure/if multi-drug resistant | 10.5 | Â | [79] |
Relative risk of death/if single drug resistant | 1.0 | Â | [79] |
Relative risk of death/if multi-drug resistant | 4.5 | Â | [79] |
   If MDR – Probability of cure with treatment | 48% | 48%-73% | [22;80] |
- Probability of death with treatment | 12% | 12%-26% | [22;80] |
HIV Infected and TB | Â | Â | Â |
   Average duration of HIV infection – Total | 9.8 years | 7.3–9.8 | [35;81] |
   - Time spent in HIV asymptomatic state | 9.0 years |  | [35] |
   Annual risk of progression of asymptomatic HIV to AIDS | 7% | 7%-9% | [35;81] |
   Annual risk of death from HIV: HIV asymptomatic state | 4.6% |  | [35] |
   Annual risk of death from HIV: AIDS | 22% |  | [35] |
   Effect of prior active TB on relative risk of death from HIV | 2.2 | (2.2 – 4.0) | [3;40;41] |
   Effect of HIV infection on relative risk of death during TB treatment (drug sensitive or single drug resistance) | 2.25 |  | [37–39;82] |
   Relapse after successful TB treatment (cured) | 3.1% | 3.1% – 6.4% | [83–85] |