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Table 3 Predictive validity – identifying sick leaves lasting at least 12 weeks. Predictive validity of identifying sick leaves that lasted at least 12 weeks, using 8 weeks as the cut-off in length as predicted by the sick-listed, medical consultants and officers. The prediction based on the Sickness Certificate 2 (SC2) used a cut-off in predicted length of at least 12 weeks. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and likelihood ratio data for NIO assessors are presented as means with 95% CI.

From: Length of sick leave – Why not ask the sick-listed? Sick-listed individuals predict their length of sick leave more accurately than professionals

Predicted length n assessments Sensitivity (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) Likelihood ratio (95% CI) PPV1 (95% CI) PPV adjusted to prevalence 33.4% (95% CI)
Sick-listed 152 0.69
(0.56–0.84)
0.80
(0.70–0.87)
3.4
(1.9–6.2)
0.68
(0.54–0.79)
0.63
(0.49–0.76)
Medical consultants Responder group 301 0.35
(0.26–0.44)
0.78
(0.71–0.84)
1.6
(1.0–2.5)
0.49
(0.38–0.61)
0.44
(0.33–0.56)
Medical consultants All participants 1961 0.42
(0.38–0.45)
0.75
(0.73–0.77)
1.7
(1.4–1.9)
0.45
(0.41–0.49)
 
Officers Responder group 302 0.53
(0.44–0.62)
0.59
(0.51–0.66)
1.3
(0.9–1.8)
0.44
(0.36–0.53)
0.39
(0.31–0.48)
Officers All participants 1968 0.53
(0.49–0.57)
0.60
(0.58–0.63)
1.3
(1.2–1.5)
0.40
(0.37–0.43)
 
Medical consultants SC2 637 0.85
(0.82–0.88)
0.44
(0.36–0.52)
1.5
(1.2–1.9)
0.82
(0.79–0.86)
0.43
(0.39–0.48)
Officers SC2 636 0.88
(0.86–0.91)
0.33
(0.26–0.41)
1.3
(1.1–1.7)
0.80
(0.77–0.84)
0.40
(0.35–0.44)
  1. 1The prevalence of sick leaves lasting at least 12 weeks was 38.2% in the responder group (n = 152), 33.4% for all participants (n = 993), and 72.1% in the SC2 group (n= 322).