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Table 3 Estimated decontainment probability for different levels of ring vaccination capacity (K r ) and relative hazard for infection due to workplace/social contacts (h 2), for different levels of the baseline hazard for infection from household contacts λ (based on replications of 100 simulations for each level). For each scenario, 10 index cases were introduced into a population of size 10000. All other parameters were the same as for Figure 3A. As before, we define decontainment to mean that the total number of cases from 10 index cases eventually exceeded 500 by day 250.

From: Logistics of community smallpox control through contact tracing and ring vaccination: a stochastic network model

Relative hazard for workplace
or social contacts
Ring vaccinations per day
  10 20
  λ λ
1/3 0.5 0 0.5 0
  0.75 0.02 0.75 0
  1 0.26 1 0
  1.25 0.73 1.25 0
  1.5 0.96 1.5 0.02
  2 1 2 0.16
  λ λ
2/3 0.5 0 0.5 0
  0.75 0.46 0.75 0
  1 0.82 1 0.02
  1.25 1 1.25 0.11
  1.5 1 1.5 0.26
  2 1 2 0.49
  λ λ
1 0.5 0.14 0.5 0
  0.75 0.86 0.75 0
  1 0.99 1 0.07
  1.25 1 1.25 0.22
  1.5 1 1.5 0.49
  2 1 2 0.85
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