Screen or not to screen for peripheral arterial disease: guidance from a decision model

Vaidya, Anil; Joore, Manuela A; ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J; ten Cate, Hugo; Severens, Johan L

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-89

BMC Public Health

Table 1 Model parameters and distribution used in the probabilistic sensitivity analyses

From: Screen or not to screen for peripheral arterial disease: guidance from a decision model

Model parameter	Value	Probability distribution	Moments of the probability distribution ά/min, β/max	Source
Discount rates
Cost discount rate	4%	Fixed	-	[14]
Outcome discount rate	1.5%	Fixed	-	[14]
Costs (Euros)*
Cost of ankle brachial index test	74†	BETA Pert	55.7;92.8	MUMC‡
Annual cost of PAD treatment	2369	GAMMA	325.09;7.29	[18]
Annual cost of Aspirin	10	Fixed		[19]
Annual cost of Clopidogrel	19	Fixed		[19]
Costs of Amputation	14343†	BETA Pert	10683;17804	[20]
Cost of AMI in first year	25328	GAMMA	100;253.27	[21]
Annual costs of MI treatment in subsequent years	3584	GAMMA	99.92;35.86	[21]
Cost of stroke in first year	27964	GAMMA	99.99;279.66	[21]
Annual costs of treatment of stroke in subsequent years	10646	GAMMA	99.99;106.47	[21]
Costs of bleeding	3457	GAMMA	99.87;34.61	[21]
ABI test accuracy
Sensitivity	0.90†	BETA Pert	0.68;1	[22]
Specificity	0.95†	BETA Pert	0.71;1	[22]
Incidence/prevalence of PAD
Prevalence of PAD	0.184	BETA	1372;6082	[6]
Annual incidence of PAD in 55–64 years aged	0.005	BETA	See Additional file 1	[23]
Annual incidence of PAD in 65–74 years aged	0.007	BETA	See Additional file 1	[23]
Annual incidence of PAD in 75–84 years aged	0.008	BETA	See Additional file 1	[23]
Annual incidence of PAD in >85 years aged	0.010	BETA	See Additional file 1	[23]
Event probabilities
Probability of amputation in patients with no PAD	0.003	BETA	32;11734	[24]
Probability of AMI in patients with no PAD	0.008	BETA	89;11677	[24]
Probability of stroke in patients with no PAD	0.008	BETA	94;11672	[24]
Probability of amputation in PAD patients	0.016	BETA	140;8441	[24]
Probability of AMI in PAD patients	0.013	BETA	111;8470	[24]
Probability of stroke in PAD patients	0.019	BETA	165;8416	[24]
Probability of symptomatic PAD	0.3	BETA	138;320	[25]
Relative risk in PAD patients on low dose aspirin	0.78	BETA	25.45;7.2	[26]
Probability of bleeding in PAD patients on aspirin	0.026	BETA	255;9311	[27]
Relative risk in PAD patients on Clopidogrel	0.616	BETA	See Additional file 1	[28]
Probability of bleeding in PAD patients on Clopidogrel	0.020	BETA	191;9386	[27]
Mortality in ‘untreated’ patients
Annual probability of death in PAD patients	0.037	BETA	323;8258	[24]
Probability of death in post Amputation	0.155	BETA	4297;21281	[29]
annual probability of death in post MI alive patients	0.028	BETA	521;17492	[24]
annual probability of death in post stroke alive patients	0.031	BETA	1212;37390	[24]
Utility
PAD	0.652	BETA	0.8;0.4	[30]
Amputation	0.45	BETA	210.8;257.7	[31]
Post MI	0.671	BETA	69.3;34	[30]
Post stroke	0.519	BETA	2.7;2.5	[30]
Post bleed	0.627	BETA	405.6;241.13	[30]

*All costs were converted to 2012 Dutch costs using harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP).
‡This cost was obtained from the Financial department of Maastricht University Medical Centre.
†Mode for BETA Pert distribution.

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ISSN: 1471-2458

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