Table 4 The outcome prevalence (Pre.), Area under the curve (AUC), and the Brier scores evaluated for the Null model, the Logistic prediction and the discrete event simulation
From: Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick- listed Danes
Macro-economic period | State | Null model | Logistic regression | Discrete event simulation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pre. | AUC | Brier score | Pre | AUC | Brier score | Pre. | AUC | Brier Score | ||
Growth | W | 44.1% | 50.0% | 0.2466 | 43.7% | 61.9% | 0.2347 | 43.4% | 62.2% | 0.2344 |
SA | 7.8% | 50.0% | 0.0719 | 7.8% | 64.3% | 0.0699 | 6.6% | 64.0% | 0.0704 | |
LTS | 4.5% | 50.0% | 0.0434 | 4.6% | 58.7% | 0.0432 | 5.6% | 57.4% | 0.0434 | |
U | 5.3% | 50.0% | 0.0502 | 5.5% | 72.1% | 0.0477 | 5.0% | 71.6% | 0.0477 | |
D | 0.3% | 50.0% | 0.0034 | 0.3% | 73.4% | 0.0034 | 0.7% | 73.8% | 0.0034 | |
Recession | W | 41.9% | 50.0% | 0.2435 | 42.5% | 61.0% | 0.2333 | 42.5% | 61.5% | 0.2321 |
SA | 9.0% | 50.0% | 0.0819 | 8.9% | 61.9% | 0.0806 | 6.7% | 61.2% | 0.0813 | |
LTS | 4.0% | 50.0% | 0.0383 | 4.0% | 58.6% | 0.0381 | 4.7% | 56.2% | 0.0383 | |
U | 7.5% | 50.0% | 0.0695 | 7.4% | 71.0% | 0.0664 | 7.8% | 70.4% | 0.0665 | |
D | 0.1% | 50.0% | 0.0014 | 0.2% | 76.6% | 0.0014 | 0.5% | 75.1% | 0.0015 | |