Figure 2

Flowchart of model outputs estimated by Impact 2. a. The 40% pregnancy rate is a comparison rate reflecting the chance of pregnancy had the women not been using contraception. b. Miscarriage estimates based on life tables of spontaneous abortion probabilities created by Hammerslough (1993) [16]. c/d. National stillbirth rates used are from Cousens et al. (2011) [17]. e/f. National abortion ratios used when published; otherwise, sub-regional ratios are used based on WHO and Guttmacher studies [12, 18]. g. Methodology developed by Population Services International to estimate the incremental effect of birth spacing from large sub-regional demographic health survey datasets [19]. These estimates may be unreliable because data about the linkages between CPR, birth spacing, and child mortality are currently very limited, and will be improved as more research becomes available in 2013. h. Maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is modelled to change overtime based on several point estimates of MMR from WHO [13]. i. Disability-adjusted life years are calculated based on years of life lost (YLL) per each maternal and child death, and years of life lost to disability (YLD) from maternal conditions, estimated by applying a sub-regional ratio of YLD/YLL for maternal conditions [20]. j. Costs include supplies and direct labour only; default cost savings assume full coverage (i.e. all women who need care receive it), and draw on regional cost and incidence data from the Reproductive Health Costing Tool [21].