Estimating the size of the MSM populations for 38 European countries by calculating the survey-surveillance discrepancies (SSD) between self-reported new HIV diagnoses from the European MSM internet survey (EMIS) and surveillance-reported HIV diagnoses among MSM in 2009

Table 1 Calculated and estimated data for survey-surveillance discrepancies and MSM population size in 38 countries of Europe (see also Additional file 1 : Table S1)

Country code	SSD calculated by SSD=1.67* [household internet access] ^-0.6	Npop calculated with SSD	Percent of the adult male population (Ntot) represented by Npop (=M)	Npop with truncation for outliers <1% and >3%¹(suggested “best” estimate)
AT	2.09	70985	2.51	70985
(BA)	5.79	26044	1.68	26044
BE	*2.19*	148081	4.18	106336
BG	*3.81*	15923	0.60	26341
BY	5.09	9368	0.29	31836
CH	1.93	70229	2.69	70229
(CY)	2.89	6954	2.29	6954
CZ	*2.66*	46321	1.24	46321
DE	*1.99*	655740	2.41	655740
DK	1.88	88900	4.87	54723
EE	2.31	0		9195
ES	2.50	294028	1.86	294028
FI	2.03	98663	5.57	53118
FR	*2.22*	821326	3.93	626948
GR	3.37	102888	2.72	102888
(HR)	2.69	29497	1.95	29497
HU	2.58	53404	1.55	53404
IE	2.20	47697	3.08	46488
IT	2.63	359315	1.81	359315
LT	2.50	17760	1.55	17760
(LU)	1.91	1749	1.05	1749
LV	2.45	12880	1.65	12880
MD	9.03	15853	1.32	15853
MK	3.48	1232	0.17	7390
(MT)	2.29	3545	2.49	3545
NL	*1.83*	111072	2.00	166872
NO	1.85	56459	3.57	47483
PL	*2.61*	67482	0.50	134981
PT	2.66	109171	3.05	107328
RO	*3.41*	2939	0.04	74916
RS	3.62	36944	1.62	36944
RU	3.44	243384	0.53	461264
SE	1.85	65632	2.16	65632
SI	2.29	39427	5.48	21591
SK	2.31	18614	0.96	19366
TR	3.80	6890	0.03	232935
UA	6.53	55547	0.36	154415
UK	2.05	694617	3.40	613658

¹ calculated Npop values below 1% and above 3% of the adult male population are substituted by 1% resp. 3% of the adult male population.
* adjusted for risk re-distribution of cases with unknown transmission risk.
Bold, questionable or unreliable values.
Italics, SSD value likely too low (or too high: BE, FR).

ISSN: 1471-2458