Table 1 Summary of impacts assumed for interventions evaluated in retrieved studies and associated effect size estimates used to derive economic outcomes

Pharmacological interventions

Polypill

Reduced absolute risk CVD

−20% [15]

Meta analysis [16]

Reduced relative risk of CVD

RR=0.12 [17] for cardiovascular disease

Estimate based on RCT evidence [2]

RR=0.29 for IHD and 0.4 for stroke (primary prevention) [18]

Overview of RCTs [19]

RR=0.12 for CHD and RR=0.2 for stroke [20]

Multiplicative effects [21, 22]

Reduction in BP and cholesterol + reduced absolute risk (to account for effects of aspirin)

20% reduction in cholesterol+33% reduction in difference in BP between 115** and current + 20% reduction absolute risk CVD (to account for benefits aspirin) [23]

Product of estimates from RCT estimates used for Cholesterol and BP. For Aspirin [16]

20% reduction in cholesterol+28% reduction in difference in BP between 115** and current + 18% reduction absolute risk CVD (to account for benefits aspirin) [24]

Product of estimates from RCT estimates used for Cholesterol and BP. For Aspirin [16]

Treatment of “high“cholesterol

Reduction in total serum cholesterol concentration

−20% [15])

RCT [21]

−20% [23]

RCT [21]

−22% [25])

RCT [26]

Reduction in relative risk of cardiovascular disease

RR=0.84 [20]

Heart Protection Study Group [21].

RR=0.95 [17]

Meta analysis [27]

Treatment of “high” BP

Reduction in relative risk of disease

RR=0.82 [17]

Overview of RCTs [28]

RR=0.66 for stroke, RR=0.72 for CHD [20]

Overview of RCTS. [22]

Reduction in the difference between SBP & 115 mmHg

−33% reduction [15]

Overview of RCTs [19]

−33% reduction [23]

RCT [29]

Blood pressure lowering

10 mmHg lowering of BP, yielding 40% RR reduction stroke and 14% reduction for coronary heart disease. [30].

Overview of randomised trials [19]

Tobacco control

Mass media smoking

Reduction in smoking prevalence

−2% [24])

Observational. Friend and Levy. 2002 [31].

−1.5%[15]

Review of observational data [31]

Price increase cigarettes

Reduction smoking attributable death

5-15% [32]

Review of observational data [33]

Nicotine replacement therapy (gum)

Increased likelihood of cessation

OR=1.66 [34]

Systematic review [35]

Increase in percentage using NRT who quit

5% [24]

Community pharmacist smoking cessation

Increase in proportion using cessation services who become long term quitters

14.3% continuous quit rate compared to 2.7 if usual care [36].

RCT [37]

Bupropion-smoking cessation

Reduced relative risk of CVD

RR=0.8 [17]

Systematic review [38]

Mass media interventions

Mass media, diet/cholesterol

Reduced total serum cholesterol

−2% [15]

Cost effectiveness analysis [39]

−2% [23]

Cost effectiveness analysis [39]

Mass media salt/reductions food

Reduced total dietary salt intake

−20% (range 10-30%) [24]

Effect of salt on BP from meta analysis [40] Mass media effects not supported.

−15% [15]

No reference for impact on salt intake, impact of salt reduction on BP from trial data [41]

Reduced CVD prevalence

−4% [32]

Review [14] and expert opinion

Combined mass media

Relative risk of CVD

RR=0.98 [17]

Meta analysis [42]

Legislative Interventions

Salt in bread-voluntary/other

Reduced CVD relative risk

RR=0.99 [17]

No reference for impact of legislation, review of trials supports impact of salt on CVD [43]

Legislation on salt in food

Reduction in total dietary salt intake

30% reduction [23]

No reference for impact of legislation. Impact of salt on BP from observational data [44]

Reduced salt intake via legislation + education

Reduced systolic BP

−2 mmHg (1-4) mmHg [32]

Review [14] and expert opinion

Reduction in the difference between actual SBP & 115 mmHg

33% reduction [15]