Table 1 Observed and forecasted asthma incidence, 1996 to 2022 in Ontario
From: Is asthma a vanishing disease? A study to forecast the burden of asthma in 2022
Observed | Forecasted | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | 1996 | 2009 | 2012 | 2022 | Â | ||||||
| Â | Number | Rate | Number | Rate | Number | Rate | (95%CI*) | Number | Rate | (95%CI*) | ETS Model |
Ontario population | 11 082 903 | Â | 11 838 462 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Incidence per 1,000 population | |||||||||||
Age groups in years: | |||||||||||
5-9 | 22 101 | 32.7 | 18 092 | 27.9 | 20 500 | 27.9 | (16.0, 48.9) | 23 500 | 27.9 | (8.7, 90.1) | M, N, N |
10-19 | 12 606 | 9.3 | 8 444 | 6.0 | 9 400 | 5.8 | (4.8, 7.2) | 9 500 | 5.8 | (4.6, 7.4) | A, Ad, N |
20-39 | 20 683 | 6.1 | 9 537 | 2.9 | 10 000 | 2.7 | (2.2, 3.3) | 10 200 | 2.5 | (2.1, 3.0) | A, A, N |
40-59 | 15 395 | 5.8 | 10 977 | 3.1 | 12 200 | 3.1 | (1.9, 4.8) | 12 300 | 3.1 | (1.2, 8.2) | M, A, N |
60+ | 13 246 | 7.7 | 7 970 | 3.6 | 9 800 | 3.6 | (2.4, 5.4) | 13 600 | 3.6 | (1.5, 8.6) | M, M, N |
Setting: | |||||||||||
Rural | 10 624 | 8.7 | 4 568 | 3.2 | NA | 2.5 | (2.3, 2.6) | NA | 1.1 | (1.0, 1.1) | A, A, N |
Urban | 73 294 | 7.8 | 50 429 | 4.8 | NA | 4.3 | (3.9, 4.8) | NA | 3.0 | (2.4, 3.7) | A, A, N |
Marginalization quintiles: | A, A, N | ||||||||||
1 (least marginalized) | 15 323 | 5.7 | 15 323 | 4.8 | NA | 4.6 | (4.4, 4.9) | NA | 4.5 | (4.3, 4.7) | A, Ad, N |
2 | 17 311 | 7.4 | 17 311 | 4.6 | NA | 4.1 | (3.9, 4.3) | NA | 3.1 | (3.0, 3.3) | M, M, N |
3 | 16 834 | 8.3 | 16 834 | 4.4 | NA | 3.8 | (3.5, 4.2) | NA | 2.3 | (1.9, 2.8) | A, A, N |
4 | 15 812 | 9.4 | 15 812 | 4.4 | NA | 3.7 | (3.3, 4.1) | NA | 2.0 | (1.5, 2.7) | A, A, N |
5 (most marginalized) | 15 337 | 10.5 | 15 337 | 5.0 | NA | 4.2 | (3.8, 4.7) | NA | 2.4 | (1.9, 3.0) | A, A, N |